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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: fb who wrote (26012)3/12/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
As far as NOVL is concerned it is irrelevant. NOVL will configure its software to run on any OS. Linux, NT, SUN-OS, HP-Unix or whatever else may come along.

I will say that the guys whole argument rests on the following statement "Finally, there is the mathematically correct way of extrapolating an exponential: If Linux has been doubling every six months for a decade, the most probable extrapolation is that it will continue to double every six months. That will put it at about 10% of the desktop by Jan 2000, about 40% of the desktop by Jan 2001, and at market saturation by Jan 2002. "

This person is obviously not a mathematician. At a minimum he needs to input competitors. A biological predetor prey or a difference equation format among others would be much more appropriate and defensible. He makes one big make mistake. Assuming that not only will Linux win but that no other firm will take any action, basically everyone else just walks away from the market.

Regards
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