Good to hear from you, JG. Great move, and unfortunately, I can't argue with a word of your post (or Grabs' either, for that matter). I actually debated selling at 13, because it seemed a little disconcerting to be back at support after a decent quarter, but I didn't believe we could go lower.
I think we could actually drift lower from here, given what happened after CLST warned. It was a shocker of a warning, that's for sure. What I don't get is how a blip on Nokia or Ericsson's screen becomes a neutron bomb on CELL or CLST's screen. Are distributors really at that much of a disadvantage when margins slip? Is the local competition that good? How could CELL have not known sooner that something of this magnitude was coming? And as far as the real devaluation goes, I thought they were immediately changing currency on foreign transactions (or was this Asia only)? I'm assuming they mean the Brazilian market in general tanked, although the real did drift lower for quite a while there. The whole thing seems a little odd for what was believed to be quality management. What's IndyTom saying over on Yahoo, anyone?
My own inclination is not to add to my position, and to sell on the rebound (I think Grabs' analysis on a trading range was right on the mark; we'll have to see how far analysts' estimates come down). I should have listened to you and Brian on CLST!
Paul |
