Valeri Evdokimov;
I don't agree. They have done this already with the decline in tech. stocks by 40-50%. Oil is still way down, oils service is at the bottom the financial stocks are just beginning to move up. When I look at the individual companies they are really in much better shape than they are portrayed. Intel will not announce a warning. It's revenues and profits are up 25% year over year. Oracle made its numbers but revenues were down but accumulating orders in the pipeline are growing so their last 2 quarters will reflect that. No cancellations in chips. If the PC industry were weak there would be cancellations. Dell is up 38% year over year. Microsoft says their orders are in line with expectations and that the so called, weakness in the PC industry is overblown, I agree. Market expectations for revenue and profit growth are unrealistic. The market will have to readjust expectations and bring them into line with reality. The overall economy is inflation 1%, GDP up 4%-6%, net GDP is 3-5%. It is almost perfect. Where is the crash going to come from? Long term high growth in techs. is nowhere near finished but will continue for decades. You should read some of the predictions of Julian Huxley (the great genius and mathematician) made during the sixties. He basically said that technological change and growth would occur at a quantum rate by the end of the century. He also said, total human knowledge would be doubling every decade by the end of the century. He said, factories would be producing without human beings. That will come true within 10 years. He also said society will have to readjust because of all this. He said many other thing too. I read this when he wrote it. I have found every one of his predictions to come true. So long as we can free ourselves of the burden of going into a big war or cold war every 15-20 years the economy will increase its growth.
Sector rotation is what counts which is something I talked about 2 weeks ago. The market had finished going down 2 weeks ago but different sectors will continue to bottom sequentially. I don't think your reading the market correctly, at least, for next few months. One concern I have is that I have not yet seen the market broaden out. However, on the other side there is tremendous liquidity backing up. The money has to go somewhere. Maybe 30 billion every month is being kept in money market accounts which will force down interest rates and then the money must go into the stock market because it has nowhere else to go. Remember, I told you that this is a demographic phenomenon. The baby boomers have a lot of money and keep saving at the same rate every month, in fact, investment capital is rising. Where does it go???? It has to go in the market. That is why this bull market has broken every rule of the past. It is unique, like no other in history. Your Russian soul sees to much tragedy, my friend.
PHOTOMAN
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