Doug ... Doug ... Doug ...
Here are your revenue estimates and assuming EBAY gets an average of 5% on the auction sales generated, your estimates assume this much auction business:
REVENUES AUCTION BUSINESS
1999 - $200M - $4 B
2000 - $700M - $14 B
2001 - $1.8B - $36 B
2002 - $4.0B - $80 B
2003 - $7.5B - $150B
2004 - $12.0B- $240B
2005 - $19.0B- $380B
Last time I heard, GDP (a reflection of economic activity) rose by 5%.
Last time I heard, retail sales were growing at a healthy 5-10% annual rate. Last time I heard, wages were going up 5-8% annually.
My question then is if EBAY generates 380 billion in auction business in year 6, who would be suffering. Don't forget, traditional business plus E business is a zero-sum game. And how about the 100 other auctioneers, are they going to do as well??? You really think that if there is a business as hot as you project it, that there won't be any competition???
Suppose an auctioneer comes up with a site, charges the same commission, offers a more organized approach (as in limiting categories to only those that can be guaranteed), offers protection for both buyers and sellers, why would EBAY be better than this. Or a specialized auction for items bigger than $10,000? Point is, this is America and the one thing certain is if its hot, it will attract a lot of copycats.
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