William:
To some extent, I'm not terribly useful, in that I tend to concentrate on the tech sector. That said, I feel strongly that the massive over-ownership of the remaining "untarnished" techs, (many funds carrying 30-50% of their portfolios in techs, as opposed to more historic 5-10%), together with the even greater over-valuation attached to same, suggests to me that it will be the tech stocks that lead the market over the cliff.
With a large percentage of the tech sector dependent on PC sales, and with PC sales growth now entering its third year of decline, I suspect we won't have to wait much longer, as this year is going to be nothing but a litany of bad news. The analysts have been able to keep the lambs in line so far by both forecasting silly things for the future, even as they quietly lower the bar for earnings on a weekly basis for each upcoming quarterly report.
A vulgar game, that has worked to this point in time, but even the dumbest lambs are starting recognize that their fleece is disappearing. (g)
In the end, earnings count.
Best, Earlie |
