B,
May all be true, but the tide turned a little bit. With all of what you said in the "background" and probably very true, the quick 50K foot view of this stock NOW (IMHO) is as follows:
1) Fear has replaced greed in the current timeframe. That may be a day, a week, or longer. That has the potential to change when the next piece of good news comes out, whatever that news is.
2) Huge profits are being booked while this happens. The upside "potential" crowd (like you, via your comments and commitment....) contends with with the mo-mo exodus because they (mo-mo players) didn't get the gratification of a split when expected, or killer earnings. MO-MO means instant gratification. It wasn't from the earnings event. Nor from the DW CC hype, but they wanted the expectation of reasonable goals (split and earnings) turning into reality at the earnings announcment event. It didn't.
3) With such a small float and the stock being classified as a INUT (with it's recent "discovery" via press articles, and LCOS deal gone awry...) it's going to continue to be very volatile.
4) LCOS action gets more crazy by the day. The longer this issue has two parties digging in instead of moving to closure, the more the stock will go down. DW's whole premise of CMGI and other IPO wanna-bees valuation is tied to this, and risk is increasing. He knows it. Most people assume that this will go on forever, and it might, but there are now yellow lights down the runway for CMGI and all their IPO valuations if LCOS deal closes BELOW where DW think is reasonable. EVERYONE WILL LOWBALL these companies for mergers. If they change to green again via closure with a win-win on LCOS/Diller, then reward potentially outweighs risk, and back we are.
So in my summary and from my perspective, not withstanding ALL that CMGI represents (truth and hype) and what they are doing, the stock action reflect two things:
1) Exodus of mo-mo money and profit-takers thinking they'll get back in lower. So far they are right.
2) Buy the rumor (3 for 1!!, Mega earnings, billions made!!), sell the news (no split gratification........yet, .30 )
3) Risk/Reward has now shifted a little more to risk vs pure reward. That doesn't mean it is super risky. It means it is potentially NOT as ST reward oriented as it was 4, 3, or even 2 days ago. To me, that warrants careful analysis of each person's acquired stock position and cost basis in CMGI, and possibly a shift of some very profitable assets from CMGI to cash (waiting for this to settle out) OR other less risky stocks. It's all how you view your gains to date, and how much more risk you want to subject your profits to.
The greed and fear issue is a very personal decision point for any stock holder.
Regards,
Steve |
