Yardeni: ' As of March 1999, I still see a 70% chance of a severe global recession. I am the first to admit that there is nothing scientific about my assessment. It is not based on a rigorous global economic model. It is simply my own subjective evaluation of the situation, as documented in this netbook. I am assigning a probability to a Y2K recession scenario to communicate my level of conviction and concern.
Compared to a year ago, I am somewhat less concerned about the readiness of the US government. I am also more optimistic about the electrical power grid, air transportation, and banking. But I now have more alarming information about the slow pace of progress overseas. At the same time, the Y2K disclosure statements filed by America's largest companies with the SEC during the third quarter of 1998 were disquieting. Other vulnerable sectors include just-in-time manufacturing, global maritime shipping, state and local governments, embedded microprocessors, gas transmission and distribution, world oil production, and local utilities. I am still disappointed by the lack of global leadership. The United Nations held its first ever conference on the issue only at the end of 1998. Better late than never, but it is getting very late indeed!
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