SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Gold/Mining/Energy : Pride Petroleum Services (PDE)
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: DEER HUNTER who wrote (400)3/13/1999 1:00:00 PM
From: Bill Zeman  Read Replies (1) of 454
 
Deerhunter

Thanx for keeping me informed about the most important posts that arise from the Strictly Drillers thread. I don't have the time or the patience to wade thru the 100 or so posts a day. I still remain bearish on the short to mid term outlook for oil. I am hoping this rally gets my oil stocks up to acceptable levels so I can sell them off and wait for new bottoms to buy back in again.

As to why I am still bearish: do you remember my post where I stated that I believe supply side production cut backs would not be enough to solve the long term glut problem. These OPEC countries are as dishonest as a 3 dollar bill. As soon as a cut back causes the rallied oil futures to hit high teens, low 20's or so, the OPEC countries will cheat like crazy and drive the prices back down with a continued glut. I can site numerous quotes from the article you just posted:

"After years of seeing OPEC promise cuts only to cheat on quotas, traders are optimistic that these cuts may stick because producing countries can't afford to let prices fall further. But some analysts remained wary that members of the dysfunctional OPEC family may renege on the pledge in fear of losing oil income.

''We'll need to see it to believe it,'' said economist Peter van Doesberg with Dutch brokerage Stroeve. ''It's not guaranteed that other countries will stick to the agreement. It's a fragile cartel.''

I don't know why traders are so confident. The OPECs WILL cheat again as soon as they see it is safe. Maybe the traders are so confident because they are just looking at the short term, 1-12 weeks. If we are placing our confidence in this then that too should be our horizon, and we should liquidate our oils before the OPECs cause prices to fall again by their cheating. Here is another quote:

"Kate Warne, an analyst with the investment firm Edward Jones in St. Louis, said OPEC members are still exceeding their self-imposed production quotas by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day."

That alone ought to be enough to bridle our enthusiasm. Here is another one:

"One of the major obstacles to a new agreement had been the issue of Iran's production. Iran has insisted that any cuts be made from a base production level of 3.925 million barrels a day, while other oil producers claim that figure should actually be 3.623 million barrels a day."

OH!!! And these stubborn Iranians are now going to start cooperating! Ya right, and pigs can fly!

Anyway, thanx again for posting good stuff Deerhunter. That post was excellent, and it went a long way towards explaining the recent run up in oil.

Bill Zeman

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2026 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News