I take that bet, anytime. I can't do the math right now, but you just wait, and remember I told you so. This is ECON 101 (I've got the sheepskin to prove it....<g>)
I am NOT rooting for the OS sector, even though I am investor in it!! I'd take my LT cap loss gladly to keep inflation as low as it's been, because I'm making more than my loss in the very friendly market environment we've been in. All that is gonna change very soon with commodity price inflation. AG will jump on that excuse to raise, and he'd be justified. Oil is the largest component of most measures, too.
You'll see DOW 7000 easily with a rate hike or 2 and a string of monthly PPI numbers that will make your hair stand on end.
Here's what we need. Creep. Slow meadering up. Fits and starts. Cheating. I'd like it to act like a snail back up over 3-5 years. Soooo slowly that it's effects are masked. The inflationary costs will be too much if it's sudden and violent spike up in a short timeframe. It won't cause gaslines like it did in the 70's, but remember what also happened then. Massive inflation and 20% interest rates. Maybe you're too young to remember that, so look at a history book. It was hell, financially and you'll pay with your other investments (401, IRA, etc.).
Root for slow and gradual, and we may get our money back, and make some too.....
Regards,
Steve |
