Michael,
you really think that analysts have nothing to do with the stock price? do u think orcl would have dropped 22% yesterday if 4 analysts did not downgrade it together?
You talk supply and demand and in free market that is what should determine the price, but there is so much manipulation out there that the supply/demand model has been skewed by mms and analysts working in synch. Their aim is not to work for you to guide you into making good deals, but to serve their own needs. When they put out strong buy, it means that they have already loaded up and will sell into your buying. When they downgrade, it means that want shares from weak hands into theirs at yard sale prices.
What happened with orcl yesterday was ridiculous, almost insane. Whenever a stock goes up or down so much, it is followed by a rebound in the opposite direction. I agree revs were not that great, but they were not so bad, that orcl shareholders deserve a 22% haircut.
Here is what I think the stock will do..It will go back up to around 31 - 32 and then slowly settle down to around where it is right now. Then until orcl makes strong headways into the internet market, it will sit here and move slightly lower. I will short orcl if it touches 32 this week. Once this stock is out of analysts favor, it will go nowhere, that is my experience with orcl. Remember when it was sitting around 24 last year, inspite of strong performance by the company.
later,
aps
p.s. msft is next in line to take a fall. that sucker is overvalued. |
