The Round Table: A work by the squares of the SNDK thread. Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Round Table: A work by the squares of the SNDK thread.

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To: Diamondhead who wrote (44)	3/14/1999 7:38:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Read Replies (1) of 194

Kevin, REGARDING YOUR IFCI POST... I think we share a lot of the same investment sentiments. It is unusual in that I happen to own both AFCI and IFCI. My head is still sore from banging it on the wall for passing up IDTC. I would like to know how many investors on this thread who picked up IDTC recently have actually tried Net2Phone. What is the impression as to the practicality of Net2Phone? My investment strategies have also gravitated toward high tech because there is a lot of compressed growth. The treacherous part of these investments is rapidly advancing competitive technologies and product obsolescence. I can understand why day traders are attracted to the gyrations of the high tech sector. Megatrends are important to have in your favor. The digital camera market was the megatrend that I felt may propel SNDK. Now, all of a sudden, there is palm computing and mp3 along with other trends toward solid state memory. Thus, at least 3 megatrends are blowing into SNDK's sails (or sales). I think people are also attracted to the look and feel of PC (PCMCIA) style cards and appliances. I wish SNDK could become a household name like Iomega. That way we could also add a bit of consumer name brand recognition into the fray. That did alot for Iomega...above and beyond the amount of enthusiasm one could justify based strictly on fundamentals. The other megatrends I am interested in are telecom infrastructure and networking equipment. The internet is going to float alot of boats and all of a sudden there is a convergence of all forms of data transmission. If you all have time you should rent the movie "Cable Guy" with Jim Carey. I like the part at the beginning where he is sitting with Matthew Broderick on the lip of a giant satellite dish. His comments tell the whole story. I was at an exhibition which featured the recovery of artifacts from the Titanic this weekend. It was sponsored by a local cable company. I toured the display that they set up outside the exhibition hall. In the near future they will be offering a 500kbs internet access in addition to standard cable offerings and phone service. All three applications can be used simultaneously. I think the local Bell here in the Midwest is shaking with fear. They will need to build out the existing local phone network to be able to compete. I think there will be a frenzied effort to upgrade. The DSL (digital subscriber lines) will require alot of new hardware. I invested in AFCI (and recently PAIR) because they seem to stand to profit from this megatrend. They are both small caps with alot of bigger players being able to crush them with one misplaced step. I have taken positions because it seems that eventually their services will be needed. I also like smaller companies that will help provide the fiberoptic backbone which will eventually replace copper. That is the reason I own IFCI and ARGX. I am not well versed in semiconductors/computer science or the telecom industry, but I do believe that one can still have a basic conceptual understanding of a company's core business despite this handicap. I bought XYLN in December based on a bargain basement price (value), a clean balance sheet and impressive & sustained revenue growth. I have little insight into the advantages of their equipment. In fact, others warned that it was in competition with other established networking giants. Nonetheless, they had advanced technology developed in-house that was desirable. The company was acquired by Alcatel like Ascend and Bay Networks before them. Unfortunately AFCI and PAIR do not demonstrate the same revenue and earnings growth as XYLN. FOR THIS REASON I FEEL THAT THEY ARE MUCH RISKIER INVESTMENTS. AFCI was up 50% after the New Year and has since fallen back to my entry price. Both companies are small blips on the radar screen and I hope that they will be noticed rather than fade. Thanks for posting the information on IFCI. I hope others on the thread take an interest and post some helpful information or questions regarding its potential. Ausdauer

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