Taking a look back, and a little peak ahead, select drive and financial stats for JTS might look something like this: (based mostly on facts and a few estimates)
Q1 96-97 Feb-Mar-Apr
Sales $ 16m, Units 118K Qtr, 9K Week Avg
Q2 96-97 May-Jun-Jul
Sales $ 16m, Units 118K Qtr, 9K Week Avg
Q3 96-97 Aug-Sep-Oct
Sales $ 32m, Units 230K Qtr, 18K Week Avg
Q4 96-97 Nov-Dec-Jan
Sales $ 64m, Units 468K Qtr, 36K Week Avg
Q1 97-98 Feb-Mar-Apr
Sales $100m, Units 728K Qtr, 56K Week Avg
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This is more or less what JTS has said they could do through the first quarter 97-98. This seems quite reasonable given that they have been shipping almost all 3-1/2 drives so far. What does seem extremely difficult to me, is how they expect to also make a profit in the first quarter. I'm certain expenses will have come down, but they need to drop quite a bit if JTS is to remain on schedule. I expect that the revenues they will report on March 4 will be right in line with expectations. I will be taking a close look at the expenses and margins. If it appears they are on track towards profitability in the second quarter, then I will be a buyer (and if not, a seller). They will also need to expand their manufacturing to be able to produce in excess of 50K drives per week, otherwise they will not be able to make their revenue forecast.
IMO, the March 4 earnings release might easily be the most important JTS news this year. Management can regain credibility if they can come through. If they blow it again, then many of us will lose the faith for good.
I'm rooting for you JTS, please don't let us down!
Regards - Dale |
