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Strategies & Market Trends : Shawn Murphy's bulls and bears

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To: Shawn Murphy who wrote (60)2/16/1997 2:08:00 PM
From: Jeffrey S. Mitchell   of 113
 
Re: A Must Read for all CSGI, ALYD and other Y2K (potential) Stockholders

Whither Tech Stocks?
Much has been said recently that tech stocks are due for a big correction. Some people have posted they have already converted some of their weaker holdings to cash. Why? Here's one prominent person's opinion I have already posted:
techstocks.com

Personally, I think that if there is a decline, it will be short-lived; perhaps only a few weeks. However, the mere fact that people are thinking this way makes me believe Year 2000 stocks are due for another surge like what happened nearly one year ago, so there is some precedent.

The Case for ALYD (Alydaar)
As a programmer, I know how difficult it would be for me to write a program to ferret out all my date-related code, let alone someone else's. Worse yet, even if I am able to flag such code, I would still have to potentially change screen designs, databases, reports, etc. by hand!

In other words, IMO, tools will always take a back seat to preparation and good old elbow grease. I can tell you from experience that 25% of my programming time is spent solving the 1% of my program that doesn't seem to work. That's why I like companies that have the warm bodies standing by to help, such as what ALYD is doing. Whereas CSGI has between 20-35 people (depending on who you talk to) ALYD is hiring 20 people each week. See the Alydaar thread for more details.

The Case for CSGI
Shawn will tell you that CSGI has a magic code converter that requires little or no human intervention. He will also probably tell you that CSGI will be hiring tons more people once they get some of their big contracts signed ("real soon now"). Since I am not a psychic, I CAN AND WILL NOT ARGUE THIS POINT. Shawn now has a track record that you can evaluate and use to make your own decision as to his credibility for portending the future.

The Good News for BOTH ALYD and CSGI Stockholders
I have been very careful not to delve too deeply into my opinions on CSGI the company versus CSGI the stock. In the long term this sector is due for a shakeout as it becomes apparent which companies have the contracts and which ones are still waiting by the phone. For now, I expect BOTH companies to benefit from the coming surge in Y2K stocks.

The Bottom Line
I am placing my money on ALYD because I think they will hit the mid 20s in short order and then continue to climb steadily in the long-term, especially since their NASDAQ listing is expected in late March. However, since there are many thread-members that purchased CSGI in the 12-14 range, I am also rooting for CSGI to at least reach this level. I am sure CSGI stockholders realize we can both be winners-- that this is not a contest.

You Can't Win if You Don't Play
Just like the famous lottery jingle says, "you can't win if you don't play". If there ever were a week to play, this is it, IMO. Choose ALYD, CSGI, both, some other Y2K company-- what the heck-- it's only money!

- Jeff
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