Jim, nice post, this board has gone nuts with posts this
weekend.... trying to keep up.
On the Voodoo3 vs. TNT2 debate going on here, I suggest people
try to switch shoes: imagine for an instant you are a 3dfx stock
holder but your product and product map is Nvidia's TNT/TNT2, and that you are a Nvidia stock holder with who has just purchased
a card manufacturer (STBI), and released info on Voodoo3 by
Jan. of this year.
Can you see reactions on this "hypothetical 3dfx board" like
"Well it's about time we released information on TNT2, we've
only heard about Voodoo3 for months now. And the product is late
to market, and when it does get to market, Nvidia is going to
release their high-end Voodoo3 4000, not to mention their next
generation Rampage product, this stock is a dog. About
the only thing we got going for us is 32 bit color. Hope someone
cares about that, the extra cost of the 32 bit memory better not
hurt us with OEM wins. And how are we going to compete on OEM's
now that our OEM house has merged with our competitor."
Seem reasonable?
The stockholders on this board are quite demanding on 3Dfx,
which is good, but Patrick's right
Message 8307591
NO question Nvidia does a better job than 3Dfx on hand-holding the PR, especially when you look at how they sent people with their new TNT2 cards to make sure the review went right, and 3Dfx got embroiled in controversy because the reviewer decides to overclock a reference
board. Who benefited from who's 'mistake' here? And everytime
3Dfx is ready to release their new products, Nvidia hype about the
*late* release of their same generation board sems to always spoil the 3Dfx party. Nvidia has a better PR machine than 3Dfx, but I hope 3Dfx doesn't improve to that level. Personally, I try not to buy the product from the company with the best salesman, but buy the best product that fits my needs from my own research and judgement of
the facts.
Let's compare 'generations' of board design, and who released first
My rough 'generation' number listed first, leaving off first Voodoo
product on purpose.
1. Voodoo2 - Voodoo2 first to market, no Nvidia product of same caliber.
2. TNT and Banshee
TNT - roughly same generation as Voodoo, but new generation do to 2D core
Banshee - roughly same generation as TNT, with 2D core
3. Voodoo3 (i.e. Banshee2) and TNT2 - looks like 3Dfx first to market
4. Rampage and ?
The first 3 generations of these products gives firsts to market on 2 of 3 generations to 3Dfx. And 3Dfx even acknowledges they made a mistake on not working on Banshee simultaneously so that it was released earlier. The real question in my mind, if I was an Nvidia stock holder, would be that we are releasing our Voodoo3 generation
product late. And given that we know 3Dfx has Rampage in the works,
I'd be real worried that Nvidia isn't waiting until TNT2 ships
to start working on the answer to Rampage. Since they are both
using the same Fab, Nvidia is very likely benefiting from 3Dfx
being first to smaller sizes with Voodoo3. So manufacturing wise
neither has an advantage, so product cycle times matter.
Bottom line, if TNT2 is a better product than Voodoo3 2000/3000,
it will be questionable against Voodoo3 4000....
*AND* it looks like, IMO, they are in danger of slipping a product cycle!
Okay, maybe that's a bit strong, but quoting Patrick,
"P.P.S. If first silicon is just being benchmarked today for TNT, there is no way in h*ll this thing will see the light of day before May. V3 hit the web four months ago. That's about the usual time to market from the first sample run." Ditto. Actually, I might argue
on the OEM front they may slip more since 3Dfx now has STBI. The
benefit of vertical integration.
When's Rampage going to be out? Well, if not slipping a product
cycle, they are at least 3-4 months behind in a product cycle
that used to be "18 months", and is now more like 8-12 months.
So they are now 1/3 to 1/2 a product cycle behind, and slipping, IMO.
If they don't have an answer to Rampage already in the works,
and Rampage releases...
So the question is, has anybody heard about what follows TNT2?
Waldeen |
