Afaq,
Thank you for the web site you provided. In two months, if this offering is finalized, FIBR should stay above $20. Let's monitor the process closely.
As far as the GigaMux parts in FIBR, let me share something with you.
1. EPC is a very good idea to mux/demux different data formats (sonet, gigabit ethernet, ESCON,.....) and I appreciate it. Most of the other metro companies only concentrate on the sonet side.
However, we should closely monitor this product line's progress. I have seen lots of good idea/patents can't go for mass production or stay manufacturable.
2. They claimed they have $5.3M backlog for Gigamux now. We should check next Q to see if they do deliver. Again, they only shipped $2.6M last whole year. I have no experience about this company to deliver what they said. But if they do, it is bullish.
3. They claimed they have 86 potential customers evaluating the products. I really don't know how do they define "evaluate". Do they have 86 systems for them to do lab tests, field trials? 86 systems may cost them more than 50M or much more?? Or they just count whomever they show some remote interests. In the telecom industry in North America, if you can secure 5 or more potential customers, it will bring you more than millions and keep you really busy. Please remember each "real" evaluation by customer can take 6 to 18 months. This claim really cut my confidence in what they said.
4. In Gigamux itself, on the optics side, it is not in the same ball park as with Ciena, Nortel, Lucent,...; on the software management side, I can't see they have enough functions on performance monitoring, provisioning and management. However, the advantage of FIBR is they are early and small customers may potentially like their stuffs better. Therefore, this year should be good for FIBR. With the competitions closing in which are companies with sound technologies and reputations, I really can't predict what will be. This is why most analysts ignore FIBR. Please don't assume those people are stupid. They know what FIBR is doing.
Regards,
CJ |
