IPO's - the 25 day quiet period - Part I
This is a very, very long post. It contains information on IPO's that may benefit from positive analysts recommendations after the 25 day quiet period ends.
Why should this work?
If you were the manager of a hot company that you wanted to take public how would you select an underwriter? You would probably want the one with the best track record, the one who's other IPO's had risen in price. How does an underwriter achieve successful IPO's? One way might be to have their analysts issue buy recommendations. Take a look at ONXS. The Lead Underwriter is CS First Boston Corp. On 3/12/99, right after the quiet period expired, CS First Boston issued a buy recommendation and the stock basically jumped 50% from $18 to $27. Then there is EPAY which closed at $28 on 3/9/99 and $58 on 3/12/99. It seems that BancBoston Robertson Stephens issued a buy on 3/10 and Bt Alex Brown issued a buy on 3/11. Turns out that BancBoston Robertson Stephens was lead underwriter and Bt Alex Brown was listed second.
VERT jumped from about $73 to $96 after favorable comments were made by an analyst with Hambrecht & Quist on 3/10/99 and the stock has continued up. Hambrecht & Quist was listed as the second underwriter for VERT. (Perhaps we'll be hearing from lead underwiter Lehman Brothers soon.)
What should we look for?
A strong lead underwriter is a definate. If no one ever heard of them their recommendation will not carry much weight. Below I have listed the lead underwriter and all the other underwriters who participated. Is a long list best? Perhaps - the more big names that can potentially issue buy reports the better. On the other hand, perhaps a short list is best - if each underwriter has a bigger piece they may have more incentive to support the stock.
It is also a positive, I think, if the company is selling all the stock. If insiders are getting out at the IPO price that may not be the best signal. That info. is also below. Is the company substantial - do they have employees, sales, profits even? That is below too. Plus some recent news (I included some news about the offering and MMK provied links to current news stories). Also below is stock price and volume data.
Triffin provided the initial dates the stocks traded and the IPO price. MMK counted out 25 days beyond the dates provided by Triffin. I have presented this info. after the price/volume charts in the format [ initial date - ticker - IPO price - date after 25 days]. The original posts by Triffin and MMK are included at the end of this file.
Where does this list come from?
I looked at a large number of IPOs trying to find those that were less than 30 days old. I eliminated most of them (banks mostly) selecting high tech/internet issues - the kind of stocks that might jump on a positive recommendation and might not fall on bad news, such as a lack of profits. VERT, for example reported increasing losses on 3/2/99. That did not stop the stock from rising - 10% on 3/2 and a lot more after that. (There are a few exceptions, such as KFY, a headhunter firm.) Of course a stock that is older than 30 days but does not yet have analysts coverage might also be worth a look - PCNTF comes to mind.
What should we buy?
Probably the most repeated line on SI is "do your own DD" and that is especially true when it comes to investing real money in IPO's. This is risky. It might not work. The market could move much lower and enthusiasm for recent IPO's could wane. Information presented here may be incorrect, incomplete or just plain stupid. With that said, IMHO, the cream of the crop in this list is: ITRA, NESY and PCOR, and possibly also WEBT.
As you review the information presented you will see that in some cases coverage did not result in an increase in the stock price, but at least none of the stocks fell after recommnedations were issued. So the strategy may not always work, but perhaps the downside is limited somewhat.
Note: Despite time spent trying to format this post properly, there are still problems. SI seems to eliminate some of the spaces or tabs in the stock charts - sorry. If anyone knows how to correct this please let me know. Also, very long posts - like this one - can not be presented in one piece. Thus I had to break it up in parts.
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BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES INC -- EPAY
Underwriters
BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS
BT ALEX BROWN INC
CIBC OPPENHEIMER CORP
HAMBRECHT & QUIST LLC
ADAMS HARKNESS & HILL INC
WILLIAM BLAIR & CO LLC
DAIN RAUSCHER CORP
MOORS & CABOT INC
FIRST SECURITY VAN KASPER
BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES DE
Prices Available: 02/12/99 through 03/12/99
Ticker: EPAY
Date Volume High/Ask Low/Bid Close
-------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
02/16/99 1,998,900 25 5/8 21 1/8 23 1/8
02/17/99 586,000 23 3/8 20 1/2 21
02/18/99 514,800 21 1/2 19 19 7/8
02/19/99 183,100 20 1/2 19 3/8 19 11/16
02/22/99 216,300 22 19 1/2 20 3/4
02/23/99 196,900 22 20 9/16 21 5/8
02/24/99 240,900 23 1/8 21 5/8 21 5/8
02/25/99 191,900 21 3/4 19 3/4 21
02/26/99 239,800 23 20 5/8 21
03/01/99 94,100 21 5/8 19 7/8 20 3/4
03/02/99 361,300 23 21 21 3/8
03/03/99 136,300 22 5/8 20 7/8 22
03/04/99 277,400 24 21 7/8 22 13/16
03/05/99 332,600 24 1/2 23 23 7/16
03/08/99 887,800 29 3/4 23 5/8 29
03/09/99 656,800 30 3/4 26 1/2 28
03/10/99 612,500 29 7/8 26 1/2 29 3/4
03/11/99 4,190,700 47 1/4 31 1/4 37 5/8
03/12/99 9,957,500 60 3/4 41 57 7/8
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EDUCATIONAL VIDEO CONFERENCING INC - EVCI
RECENT NEWS
2/23/99 The company priced at $12.
2/10/99 The company set its price to $11-$13 and changed its symbol from EVIC to EVCI.
12/23/98 The company set its price to $12.
Provides educational courses and programs to employees of major corporations via interactive video conferencing systems.
Status/Tentative Pricing- PRICED 2/23
Lead Underwriter- PRIME CHARTER LTD
Exchange- NASDAQ
Ticker- EVCI
Price- $12
Shares- 1,200,000
Shares Offered by Company- ALL
Post-Offering Shares- 5,017,495
Underwriters
PRIME CHARTER LTD
CE UNTERBERG TOWBIN
SANDS BROTHERS & CO LTD
FIRST SECURITY VAN KASPER
GILFORD SECURITIES INC
CHATSWORTH SECURITIES LLC
KAUFMAN BROTHERS LP
JJB HILLIARD WL LYONS INC
DRAKE & CO INC (DRAKE CAPITAL SECURITIES INC)
Employees, Full-time|Part-time- 18
Revenue- $0.4 Mln (FY 98)
Net Income- $(2.7 Mln)
EVCI
Prices Available: 02/23/99 through 03/12/99
Ticker: EVCI
Date Volume High/Ask Low/Bid Close
-------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
02/24/99 102,700 15 1/4 14 5/8 15 1/8
02/25/99 37,100 15 1/2 15 15 1/2
02/26/99 60,300 15 5/8 15 1/4 15 1/4
03/01/99 38,900 16 1/2 15 1/4 16 1/4
03/02/99 37,000 17 15 7/8 16
03/03/99 33,000 16 3/16 15 5/8 16 3/16
03/04/99 62,600 16 3/8 16 16 3/8
03/05/99 15,100 16 1/2 15 3/4 15 3/4
03/08/99 72,900 16 1/4 14 1/4 15 1/4
03/09/99 40,600 15 11/16 15 1/8 15 1/4
03/10/99 23,100 15 1/2 15 1/4 15 7/16
03/11/99 25,700 15 1/2 14 3/4 15
03/12/99 19,600 15 1/4 14 3/4 14 3/4
[2-23..EVCI..@12 - 3/29]
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WEBTRENDS CORP - WEBT
RECENT NEWS
2/18/99 The company priced at $13 for trading on Friday.
2/16/99 The company increased its number of shares from 3,000,000 to 3,500,000.
1/29/99 The company set its price to $9-$11 and set its number of shares to 3,000,000.
Provider of enterprise management and reporting solutions for Internet-based systems.
Status/Tentative Pricing- PRICED 2/18
Lead Underwriter- DAIN RAUSCHER CORP
Exchange- NASDAQ
Ticker- WEBT
Price- $13
Shares- 3,500,000
Shares Offered by Company- 3,000,000
Shares Offered by Shareholders- 500,000
Post-Offering Shares- 11,218,964
Underwriters
DAIN RAUSCHER CORP
SOUNDVIEW TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC
BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS
HAMBRECHT & QUIST LLC
MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER & CO
NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY SECURITIES LLC
PAINEWEBBER INC
BLACK & CO INC
LADENBURG THALMANN & CO INC
NEEDHAM & CO INC
PACIFIC CREST SECURITIES INC
SUTRO & CO INC
CE UNTERBERG TOWBIN
Employees, Full-time|Part-time- 78
Revenue- $8.0 Mln (FY 98)
Net Income- $0.2 Mln
WEBTRENDS CORP
Prices Available: 02/19/99 through 03/12/99
Ticker: WEBT
Date Volume High/Ask Low/Bid Close
-------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
02/19/99 6,602,000 38 26 27 1/16
02/22/99 1,707,700 28 23 3/4 24 5/8
02/23/99 704,300 25 22 24
02/24/99 463,900 26 1/4 24 25 1/2
02/25/99 465,900 25 1/2 23 5/8 25 1/4
02/26/99 106,500 25 1/2 24 1/16 25 1/8
03/01/99 294,500 26 1/8 24 1/16 26
03/02/99 629,800 32 5/8 25 1/4 29
03/03/99 376,800 32 3/4 29 7/8 30 3/8
03/04/99 188,400 32 5/16 29 1/2 30 15/16
03/05/99 135,600 32 1/2 29 3/4 30 11/16
03/08/99 186,100 31 1/8 29 1/4 29 3/8
03/09/99 180,700 30 7/8 29 1/4 30 9/16
03/10/99 1,180,600 39 30 1/2 38 3/4
03/11/99 1,695,100 45 3/4 37 41 1/16
03/12/99 731,900 46 3/8 40 3/16 46
[ 2-19..WEBT..@13 - 3/25]
WEBT...
Named to Web Host Guild
WebTrends and Intraware Partner to Provide Enterprise Management and Reporting
Solutions to IT Community
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VERTICALNET INC- VERT
Underwriters
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC
HAMBRECHT & QUIST LLC
VOLPE BROWN WHELAN & CO LLC
WIT CAPITAL CORP
BEAR STEARNS & CO INC
BT ALEX BROWN INC
BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS
DONALDSON LUFKIN & JENRETTE SECURITIES CORP
SG COWEN SECURITIES CORP
WILLIAM BLAIR & CO LLC
DAIN RAUSCHER CORP
FRIEDMAN BILLINGS RAMSEY & CO INC
JANNEY MONTGOMERY SCOTT INC
KAUFMAN BROTHERS LP
NEEDHAM & CO INC
VERTICAL NET INC OC-COM
Prices Available: 01/26/99 through 03/12/99
Ticker: VERT
Date Volume High/Ask Low/Bid Close
-------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
02/16/99 1,359,200 46 40 5/8 40 7/8
02/17/99 792,100 40 1/2 35 1/8 37 3/4
02/18/99 766,700 38 1/8 34 3/4 35
02/19/99 367,500 37 1/2 35 35 1/4
02/22/99 233,000 37 1/2 35 36 1/4
02/23/99 741,900 43 1/8 36 42 7/16
02/24/99 578,000 46 41 1/4 43
02/25/99 232,400 44 3/4 39 40 1/2
02/26/99 184,600 43 38 41 1/4
03/01/99 705,700 49 7/8 40 49 1/2
03/02/99 1,620,900 59 1/2 50 56
03/03/99 619,500 59 7/8 53 5/8 57 3/4
03/04/99 383,500 59 1/2 52 5/8 54 3/4
03/05/99 170,100 56 1/2 52 54 1/2
03/08/99 1,161,100 85 1/4 50 7/8 74 1/16
03/09/99 862,400 84 7/8 68 73
03/10/99 2,337,400 102 79 1/8 96 1/4
03/11/99 3,383,900 120 98 106 1/4
03/12/99 1,963,800 119 105 1/16 107 1/2
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ROWECOM INC- ROWE
3/8/99 The company priced at $16 for trading on Tuesday.
2/10/99 The company set its price to $12-$14 and set its number of shares to 3,100,000.
Status/Tentative Pricing- PRICED 3/8/99
Lead Underwriter- JP MORGAN SECURITIES INC
Exchange- NASDAQ
Ticker- ROWE
Price- $16
Shares- 3,100,000
Shares Offered by Company- ALL
Post-Offering Shares- 9,631,447
Underwriters
JP MORGAN SECURITIES INC
CIBC OPPENHEIMER CORP
VOLPE BROWN WHELAN & CO LLC
BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS
BT ALEX BROWN INC
SALOMON BROTHERS INC
CHARLES SCHWAB & CO INC
Employees, Full-time|Part-time- 95 | 6
Revenue- $19.1 Mln (FY 98)
Net Income- $(7.6 Mln)
ROWE
Prices Available: 03/10/99 through 03/12/99
Ticker:
Date Volume High/Ask Low/Bid Close
-------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
03/11/99 2,822,200 39 31 1/16 35 3/8
03/12/99 1,112,000 39 35 1/8 35 3/4
[ 3-08..ROWE..@16 - 4/12]
ROWE...
T. Rowe Price Associates Declares Quarterly Dividend
RoweCom Inc. Is Listed On NASDAQ Following IPO
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PCORDER.COM INC- PCOR
RECENT NEWS
2/25/99 The company priced above range at $21 for trading on Friday.
2/25/99 The company increased its price from $11-$13 to $19-$21.
2/9/99 The company set its price to $11-$13 and set its number of shares to 2,200,000.
Provider of Internet-based electronic commerce solutions that enable the computer industry's suppliers, resellers and end-users to buy and sell computer products online.
Status/Tentative Pricing- PRICED 2/25
Lead Underwriter- GOLDMAN SACHS & CO
Exchange- NASDAQ
Ticker- PCOR
Price- $21
Shares- 2,200,000
Shares Offered by Company- ALL
Post-Offering Shares- 15,148,602
Underwriters
GOLDMAN SACHS & CO
CS FIRST BOSTON CORP
SG COWEN SECURITIES CORP
BANCBOSTON ROBERTSON STEPHENS
DONALDSON LUFKIN & JENRETTE INTERNATIONAL
EDWARD D JONES & CO
ADVEST INC
JC BRADFORD & CO
DAIN RAUSCHER CORP
LEGG MASON WOOD WALKER INC
SANDS BROTHERS & CO LTD
SOUNDVIEW TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC
STEPHENS INC
WIT CAPITAL CORP
Employees, Full-time|Part-time- 194
Revenue- $21.7 Mln (FY 98)
Net Income- $(9.6 Mln)
PCOR
Prices Available: 01/05/87 through 03/12/99
Ticker: PCOR
Date Volume High/Ask Low/Bid Close
-------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
02/26/99 5,299,100 59 1/2 45 3/8 47 1/8
03/01/99 903,500 47 1/4 40 3/8 41 15/16
03/02/99 693,100 44 1/2 38 41 7/8
03/03/99 191,800 42 1/2 40 3/4 41 7/8
03/04/99 271,200 41 7/8 39 39 1/2
03/05/99 177,800 44 39 3/4 42 1/8
03/08/99 430,300 52 3/8 42 1/8 49 3/4
03/09/99 373,400 56 49 1/2 54 1/4
03/10/99 874,700 69 1/2 55 67 3/8
03/11/99 551,500 67 55 55 1/8
03/12/99 325,500 63 55 1/4 58 1/2
[2-25..PCOR..@21 - 4/1]
PCOR...
BestPricePC.com Uses pcOrder.com Portal Solution to Launch Online Superstore
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