666 posts since I last posted here. Is that right? Has it been that long since they drove me out?
You're right. The question is tough. Every trade data suggests the stock amazingly has entered into major distribution, but since this is a non-institutional stock and dominated by small amateur public action, you can't trust the data. Simply said there's a lot of public back and forth with no net flow. The price moves according to random waves of noise. It is buoyed by public enthusiasm, but that will disappear as the bear bites deeper.
I recently mentioned to some that by being generous with a minimum 2M subscription rate in 2 years, I could see the company earning $2.00 and hold a 50 multiple. That would mean the shares are worth $100. Between the cup and lip there are other possibilities. It is the nature of the bear to press onto unbelievers the fiducial realities of conservative valuations. It is reasonable that the stock could trade down to $50 in a normal bear. The way the FED has been and will continue to blow it means the stock is vulnerable to $10.
As for the upside I believe the top is in place. There are no expressed bears on this thread, at least not since I last read it a month ago. When I was booted out, the thread quality had deteriorated to something below that of "DELL" or "Gold Price Monitor" threads, definitely not the quality of the "Why you should beat your wife" thread. Thread deterioration is a serious sign of excess public participation and enthusiasm, but sentiment is never a reason to buy or sell, it only tends to corroborate the average state. If you are an investor, you should ignore all of this anecdotal evidence.
You should assume the stock is going to $10. You will NOT buy any shares if it breaks 100 and runs down. You will NOT attempt to trade out of the shares in order to buy more below. You will NOT invest in industrial stocks if you have more money. You will NOT get involved with options. You will ignore all the trouble that will arise out of economic perfection. If you obey and hold, all these things will evaporate and against your endless regrets for not having sold, you'll make a pile. Then you will regret how wealthy you could have been. Wealth always makes a fool out of you and the fools are so proud of themselves for having cast their pearls before swine to get the loot. |
