INDEX UPDATE
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I would like to take a few moments to discuss probability based on statistics. Right now theres solid proof that there are less and less stocks participating in any rallys and there are few that will argue that.
I am hearing from many analysts that once we cross 10,000 alot of money will come in and the rallys will broaden implying that more stocks will participate.
OK - here's my question. What statistical proof is out there that implies that once we cross 10,000 things will make dramatic positive
changes. To this day I have not heard any statistical comments supporting such possibility, so why are analysts saying it. AHH - could it be because of emotions?? Ok, hey they could be right, so then the question becomes do you want to make you decisions based on statistical probability or emotions?????
Im unable to do a study on it since my data is limited, but to get a fair statistical probability, a study should be made to see what has happened after reaching a "THOUSAND MARK". So what happened when the market hit 1000,2000,3000,4000,5000,........ This study should first examine what happened when we got within, lets say 100 points or 1% of hitting a THOUSAND MARK.
I am sure there are some good instintive investors, but Im quite sure that there are not many of them and I am not one of them. When I was first developing my system, I often went on instint/emotions rather than listening to my system and guess who was wrong almost every time.
Just trying to talk about common sense.
Seeya |
