Claude,
Re: EW Count
I have made a few amendments to my LT count, chiefly concerning the 1956-1972 period. Nothing in it to change the current read.
I think that my read of the present count is clear and unshakable.
I also think I've found what made Pretcher so bearish in '95-'96.
I associate the larger waves (Primary and Cycle) with economic cycles.
1. The Super Cycle began in 1932
Well, I think the Big Depression was an economic "correction" at least one degree larger then any economic downturns that followed.
Looking at a ratio scale chart of the last century it looks like one big bull market from the '30s to the present.
Very little opposition to start the Cycles count from the Big Depression market low.
2. Cycle 4 ended in 1974
A lot more opposition here, but again viewing the economic waves, the oil crisis of '73 was the worst economic crisis in the US since.
3. Primary 4 ended in 1990
Since '75 there were only two recessions with negative real GDP growth
webcom.com
The '80 - '82 recession is associated with Primary 2.
The '90 - '91 recession is associated with Primary 4.
Therefore Primary 5 of Cycle 5 began from the October 1990 low.
(see also the industrial production ratio scale chart showing a 5 wave formation with classic ABC corrections from 1975-
webcom.com
A/D line note:
A/D line bottoms mark the waves bottoms, but A/D tops mark the momentum tops at the end of 3 of 3 waves.
All the posts that say ohmygod, look at the A/D line, only state that we've passed the 3 of 3 of the current Primary wave.
Look at the '86-'88 A/D line:
decisionpoint.com
The A/D line topped a year and a half in advance of the market top.
Same now - NYSE A/D topped 4/98 , and cumulative A/D topped in '97.
I reviewed my count from 1990 and didn't change a thing:
Primary 5 - 10/90 to present.
.... Intermediate 1- 10/90 to 1/94
.... Intermediate 2- 1/94 to 12/94 (A/D line bottom)
.... Intermediate 3- 12/94 to present
........... Minor 1- 12/94 to 2/96
........... Minor 2- 2/96 to 7/96
........... Minor 3- 7/96 to 7/98
.................Minute 1 - 7/24/96 to 2/18/97
.................Minute 2 - 2/19/97 to 4/11/97
.................Minute 3 - 4/14/97 to 7/10/97
Cumulative A/D line top was reached on Minute 3 of Minor 3 of Intermediate 3.
.................Minute 4 - 10/7/97 to 10/27/97
.................Minute 5 - 10/28/97 to 7/17/98 (extended)
.................Minuette 1 - 10/28/97 to 12/5/97
.................Minuette 2 - 12/5/97 to 1/12/98
.................Minuette 3 - 1/12/98 to 4/6/98 (NYSE A/D top)
.................Minuette 4 - 4/7/98 to 6/15/98
.................Minuette 5 - 6/16/98 to 7/17/98
........... Minor 4- 7/20/98 to 10/8/98
................ Minute A - 7/20 to 9/1
................ Minute B - 9/1 to 9/23
................ Minute C - 9/23 to 10/8
Minor 5 of Intermediate 3 of Primary 5 of Cycle 5 started 10/8/99
Intermediate 4 will be a crash, 1987 style, one degree larger then July- October '98.
It may be named "The Millennium crash" because of its timing, but the Super Cycle bear, the realy big bear, not a measly 30%-50% correction, is in the more distant future, after Intermediate 5 will limp to new highs.
Why will Intermediate 4 be a crash and not a sideways correction?
Because intermediate 2 was flat, and the 2 and 4 interchange - a sharp 2 usualy precedes a flat 4 and a flat 2 usualy precedes a sharp 4. See minor 2 ('96) and minor 4 ('98). See also intermediate 2 (1984) and intermediate 4 (1987).
1987 was intermediate 4 of primary 3 of cycle 5.
1999 will see intermediate 4 of primary 5 of cycle 5.
You want to buy this correction, and sell when we approach Dow 10000 again in a year or two. Then the real bear will start, the one that will grind people's pension plans to dust, lasting over a decade and accompanying the biggest economic down turn since the big depression.
I will say it - Japan. Maybe even bigger.
ATG |
