Another effect of Y2K problem to think about. Article talks about PCs first and then networking equipment. Jeff
<<
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Y2K May Create "Scrooge-Like" Christmas for PC Market
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Story Filed: Monday, March 15, 1999 08:17 AM EST
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ. (March 15) BUSINESS WIRE -March 15, 1999--While PC sales are expected to be strong through the third quarter of 1999, Christmas could be less than dazzling for PC OEMs and other electronics manufacturers.
Research from Cahners In-Stat Group strongly indicates the possibility of a corporate IT lockdown which would effectively quell new PC installations during fourth quarter of 1999.
The high-tech market research company also believes that the lion's share of related new system purchases and installations will take place before the fourth quarter, especially at the large enterprise level and that "panic buyers" won't be plentiful enough to hold up shipments.
Cahners In-Stat Group's annual forecast for PC unit shipments stands at a slower increase than normal, but is by no means catastrophic at 12.2 percent for 1999. Quarterly shipments for total worldwide PC units are expected to slow dramatically from 16.96 percent in Q399 to 7.59 percent in Q499.
While the fourth quarter stall in PC shipments is expected to have far-reaching effects, Cahners In-Stat Group expects the condition to be short-lived.
-- Component markets: PCs still account for nearly 60 percent
of DRAM Mbit shipments so a PC slowdown in any quarter has a
negative impact on that component. However, it's expected that the long-term trend of stable, upward unit growth will
continue for both the PC market and the component segments
supplying it.
-- Networking equipment: Impact from a temporary slow down in
PC sales will be minimal and primarily contained in Q499.
The NIC and modem segments of the networking industry are most directly tied to PC shipments, but all segments will
experience a slight pinch. While the fourth quarter overall is expected to dip a slight 1.8 percent, Cahners In-Stat
Group projects a 15.5 percent increase in total networking equipment for 1999. If the rate of growth for the first
three quarters continues into the fourth, 1999 will see an increase of over 20 percent for total networking equipment.
Overall, the trends that characterized the PC market in 1998 will continue in 1999. "The decrease in consumer PC prices, complemented by ever-increasing price/performance ratios, will continue to drive market conditions," said Martin Goslar, senior analyst for Cahners In-Stat Group's PC Market Service.
"State-of-the-art PC technology will continue to be a necessary, but insufficient element of this marketplace. Market strategies will determine market position and profitability." Goslar wrote the report, Worldwide PC Market '98 Review & '99 Preview, which includes key developments and major trends in 1998, market influences in 1999, worldwide PC market share and top PC OEM market shares.
Cahners In-Stat Group is a high-technology market research firm with comprehensive understanding of computer and convergence, networking, wireless, telecommunications, Internet and semiconductor markets.
Headquartered in Newton, Mass., offices are also located in Scottsdale, Ariz. and San Jose, Calif. Cahners In-Stat Group is part of Cahners Business Information, the largest publisher of specialized business publications in the United States and a division of Reed Elsevier. Visit Cahners In-Stat Group online at cahnersinstat.com.
>>
|
