Donald, these are the corrected figures:
First One
Crossing month
Date Level later Change
-------- ------ ------ -----
11-Oct-82 1012.8 1054.7 4.14%
8-Jan-87 2002.3 2176.7 8.71%
17-Apr-91 3004.5 2886.6 -3.92%
23-Feb-95 4003.3 4087.8 2.11%
21-Nov-95 5023.6 5096.5 1.45%
14-Oct-96 6010 6313 5.04%
13-Feb-97 7022.4 6878.9 -2.04%
16-Jul-97 8038.9 7803.4 -2.93%
6-Apr-98 9033.2 9054.7 0.24%
------ ------ -----
Average 1.42%
The standard deviation is 4.1%, so according to this historical
data we could see, within a month, the following:
Average: 10,142
One sigma limits: 9731 to 10552
Two sigma limits: 9320 to 10963
If we go by average performance, the rise would not be very large,
somewhere around 10150. If we go by the extremes, we could see
either a substantially higher or a substantially lower market.
Also, keep in mind that this is a one-month look ahead snapshot, and
the figures would be quite different if we took a different time
window.
But except for the 2000 level, when we zoomed almost 9% within a
month, the rest of the crossings have not been monumental.
P.S. Thanks, James, for showing me how to do the fixed format.
Simple unless you don't know how :-) |
