MileHigh:
I will have some money for you if RMBS back to $100. However, I will take a look at WEBT. Cramer is now bullish.
Allen
Forgetting About the Next Shoe Dropping in Tech
By James J. Cramer
We are a personal computer stock blow-up away from a great trading
opportunity in tech. Everybody fully expects a fiasco on the horizon, and I
am sure one will surface. I know I have stayed away from this group for
what seems like a lifetime, but I also know that the group has had a major
move down. In the meantime, almost every other sector has had its day in
the sun.
In the interim, we saw good rallies in the consumers, in the banks, and in
the oils and the oil-service stocks. We had nice runs the papers, chemicals
and airlines.
Now these groups seem to have gotten too pumped versus tech, in my book. I
know I have been loathe to get involved until Compaq (CPQ:NYSE) stops going
down -- I am short Compaq -- but I think that tech's fundamentals have
bottomed for now, and I would like to get long something.
Friday, as I mentioned in my chat, I started buying some Intel
(INTC:Nasdaq). The company was around town, saying it wasn't disappointed
with its performance of late. I also feel that the Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq)
announcement took the risk out of that stock for now. And these D-Rams, one
day's uptick in pricing and they will explode upwards. Meanwhile, Microsoft
indicated on its call that personal computer sales remain very strong.
But the main reason I want to get back in is last week's readers' poll
about the way to play the tech upgrade from the Internet. All of the names
that stand to benefit seem like classic NDX names to me. On Friday I
covered my QQQ (QQQ:Amex) short (if you don't know what that is take a look
at the advertisement for the NDX 100 that's been running on the site), and
now I think I want to go the other way, in lieu of trying to pick which
individual stock might work. I am either going to buy the QQQ outright, or
calls on the QQQ -- maybe even the near-term calls -- in order to capture a
quick move. I think the move could begin on Monday.
My gut had told me to wait until the next shoe dropped in tech. My feeling
now is that things have come down enough that we won't be able to get in
when that next shoe drops. It will already be too late. I am sharing this
with you simultaneous to my own actions. I have no NDX, or QQQ, position as
I write this.
Random musings: Looks like the dead-tree press is having a field day at my
expense, and will continue to do so. Some of you have written, urging me to
take a strident stand against these critics. But I am not taking the bait.
You don't come to this column to hear constant defenses of my existence.
You come to learn, maybe laugh some, but learn. That's why, going forward,
I will only respond with this one comment: In my business, there are two
kinds of people, those who make money and those who critique those who make
money. I am proud to be in the former, and I will not let the latter stop
me.
Enough said.
|
