I think it's important to remember that the primary reason for the stock's weakness during the first quarter of 1997 was the secondary offering.
If history is supposed to repeat, then the downturn in the stocks should happen in September of 2000, around the time that Sony releases the successor to the PSX. In 1995, Saturn had been out a year, and N64 was a year away, while PSX was just released. If the same scenario holds true this time (which I doubt), late 2000 is the next peak (in anticipation of a transitional slump).
I think that the current weakness in THQI stock is due somewhat to the seasonal weakness in the whole group, some fear about transitions, some fear about WCW loss, but mostly due to the market's momentum/expensive stock focus. How else can anyone explain the decline to all-time lows that THQI's P/E has experienced? The true problem is the one underlying the entire "investing" world; until the momentum mania ends (and ends quite badly, probably), stocks like THQI will suffer low multiples.
Let's hope that the next upswing in the video game market coincides with a shift in market sentiment, favoring value stocks. Then, THQI will fly. Until then, all bets are off on stock price targets. And in the meantime, we're going to witness one hell of a valuation multiple compression in THQI stock.
Todd |
