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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Xin Net Technologies - BB: XNET - The Next Internet Stock?
XNET 7.320+2.2%3:59 PM EST

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To: Dorine Essey who wrote (352)3/15/1999 6:05:00 PM
From: FFNEODOC  Read Replies (3) of 1593
 
Dorine: Regarding XNET share price & revenues!
I've been following your thread for the past few months & finally decided to join SI (Got frustrated with the "Static" on the Yahoo thread). I've been long XNET since Dec for several thousand shares. I was trying to figure a reasonable share price for XNET based on revenues & using the current AOL multiples. Market cap of AOL currently ~ 100 billion. Revenues last Qtr were ~ 1 billion or 4 billion annualized. This gives a P/R ratio of 25. (I've used P/R rather than P/E since XNET is probably where AOL was 4 yrs ago, prior to AOL profitability, and top line growth at this point is probably more important) To make an estimate of XNET revenues I'll figure 20,000 Accounts at US prices of $20/month for revenues of $4,800,000/yr. I've neglected to factor in any revenues from XNET's E-Fax, E-tailing, Web posting, web paging operations, or advertising; but did so on purpose since my estimate of subscriber revenues may be too high. Using the AOL multiple would yield a market cap for XNET of 120 million & and a share price of $8.50!! When I talked to E. Cheung at XNET a few weeks ago, he told me they would report a profit in 1998 and were trying to get the numbers together within a month. Does anyone have any comments on my analysis & do we have any idea what kind of revenues a Chinese subscriber generates? Since IMOT have reported their revenues, does anyone know their subscriber base, so we could figure the revenue/Chinese subscriber? (I know XNET's revenues are higher since they've been in the business since '93 & IMOT just started in 6/98) Comments would be greatly appreciated. (From a disclosure standpoint, I'm not long or short IMOT)
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