Mr. Erz,
I agree with your assessment and perils associated with LGNDs burn rate. I find your view of the probability of LGND being profitable in 1999 or 2000 an interesting contrast to some analyst views(my wish is that your view is a bit pessimistic) :-). I absolutely agree that the "maker/breaker" for LGND(at least for the share holders relative short term)is the breast cancer indication for Targretin. However, I would question how any kind of news could be leaking from the Targretin trials(good or bad)that would be influencing the current share price of LGND. Such news rarely"leaks"from a trial, although rumors of such "leaks" have been used by some in an effort to drive a share price in one direction or the other. Although I would lump all biotechs into the high risk category, I would not conclude as you did that LGND is a higher risk bet among biotechs. I would reserve that label for those companies that have a more narrow science base to work from, such as DEPO, or XOMA(which I do trade), as compared to LGND. Yes, LGND is speculative by any standards, but I won't concern myself with the possibility that bad news is leaking from the trials. I believe the reason that LGND is so weak at this time lies somewhere else. I too wonder what the investors of Immunex thought throughout the years of 1994, 1995, 1996, as their money sat "dead". I wonder what reasons they discussed, and just how obvious in August of 1997 it was to them that their price per share would appreciate by more than $50 in the next 30 days. I wonder how big their smile was today when Immunex closed at 176 11/16?
Good Luck,
Greg
PS: If your English is this good, I also wonder how eloquent your native tongue is! :- )) |
