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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8238)	3/15/1999 9:32:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) of 99985

I spent some time over the weekend to think about what you've just said. I can see the arguements for it. But in the end, I had to conclude that the bull market will continue (barring any extreme external shocks) for another 4~8 years. Then we should see the mother of all bear markets. I came to this conclusion based on international trends, liquidity and demographic trends, peer comparisons to previous long running bull markets, as well as long waves. We may get a 20+% correction now and again, but there is not much on the way to meet Mr. Bear yet. Even assuming that we are in a 1966 situation (and there are similarities) the bear market did not start in earnest until 1973. So my 4~8 year to Mr. Bear arguement may not be in total disagreement with your observations. Sun Tzu

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