Edderd <<How did you get the copy of the abstracts?>>
Ed, I am a subscriber to the Journal of Urology. The abstract book arrived as a supplement to the April issue.
Edderd: <<Are you now an "investor" of Vivus?>>
As noted by Dr. Z, I am an ex-VVUSer. I sold out in January 1998 with a quick one-month profit and concerns about the "Impotence is Optional" campaign.
I have been an investor primarily in Big Pharma (over 25 years!), High Tech and two Little Pharmas (ICOS and SEPR).
Edderd: << why have you suddenly become so active on this board?
>>
Ed, I guess I like the challenge of posting facts and opinions on an active Board with people who have different "facts" and opinions..... especially in Pharma stocks.
What I have learned is that many people really don't want to read facts and opinions that differ from their own view of their stock investments.
My very first post concerning VVUS was posted on 10/29/97 on AOL's Motley Fool VVUS Board (see below). This post was met with cries of open hostility, name-calling and accusations about my honesty...Some things never change!
Finally, I am a big proponent of sharing facts and honest opinions on the Internet. Hopefully, others on the VVUSer Board agree.
BigKNY3
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BigKNY3 10/29/97 VVUS@29.88 posted on AOL Motley Fool VVUS Board
sharikwa <<what you think of Vivus?>>
I do not have have a long position in VVUS or expect to have a position in the future. It does not fit the profile of companies that I like to own (too risky and volatile). I have also never shorted a stock or plan to!
Although I do not have extensive knowledge about VVUS, here are some general observations:
1. VVUS is currently a one-product company in a significant active therapeutic area. The ED market will dramatically change and grow during the next two years.
2. As a relatively brand new company, VVUS management is bound to make some big mistakes concerning forecasting, production, marketing and dealing with the FDA. These mistakes could have a significant adverse impact on VVUS.
3. Major VVUS posters have absolutely no knowledge of the pharmaceutical industry or pharmaceutical marketing and are relying on their price trend charts to determine the future of MUSE and VVUS. A big mistake!! Even worse, some posters spread misinformation about competition to suit their current positions. In the end, facts, experience, and patient preference (not misinformation) will win out in the marketplace.
4. VVUS seems to be a magnet for momentum investors. Just check out the Silicon Investor VIVUS Board for further evidence. As a result, short-term 20%-50% swings (up and down) can be expected. If you hit the timing right, there is an opportunity to make money. But, you also need to know when to get out. This is not a buy and hold stock!
5. Oral medications should be introduced in the ED market in 1998. Their impact on MUSE is unknown. Moreover, news about the oral drugs will probably have an adverse effect on VVUS. VVUS is down 15% since the announcement of Viagra's NDA submission on September 29th even with a one day spurt on 9/30/97..
VVUS management is putting on a happy face about an expanding market. But, in reality, nobody knows what will happen until the oral products are available. Regardless, this is a major factor for VVUS that brings significant additional risk ...and possible opportunity.
Best of luck to all VVUS investors,
BigKNY3 |
