Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Andrew Brockway who wrote (40092)	3/16/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Andrew B; re: PZE - also E&P's, Big Oil & Integrated Oils are mixed fwiw... I LOVE PZE ! a must own value play... Big Oils, independant E&P's and Integrated Oils/Refiners are mixed - with the OSX basically bleeding Red... also; fwiw - look at what stocks are actually up today; JRM MDR HLX WG HOFF TCMS IIR CDIS OMNI - no drillers in that group - all const/service co's ... Drillers are ''THE" Mo-Mo plays here; 1st to Run & first to Fall... keep that in mind on the next cycles. Andrew; I own PZE - trimmed a bit on the last retracement; my wash sale expires on wednesday - so don't be running it up <VBG>... it will be a top 5 holding for me fwiw. But, this will be a slow mover - much disappointment in management for turning down an $80 offer a year, or so ago.... unbelieveable... But; the split up of PZL -PZE will unlock value. When we return to an acknowledged post $15/16 Oil enviroement PZE will fly imho. Remember everyone from Susan Byrne who appears on CNBC often and Michael Price who called PZE ''the'' single best 3-5 year play in the entire market; have touted PZE - it's day will come... PZE is the posterchild for longterm contrarian value investing imho. PSS...not to say ''I sold you so'' - but one has to not only trade/invest on what they as individuals think/believe, but also on what the Street is thinking and what they are likely to do... When we had numerous comments in the Press that ''these gains are fully pricing in Oil's move and OPEC cuts''; my first thought was - ''how could they be'' ? We had some stocks still 20-30-50% below prior highs during these recent rallys from September and even the weeks ago January post tax loss seling ''pop.'' ? We had a much better enviroment here and Oil prices were much higher - so why the worry ? How could the Street possibly say these stocks were fully pricing in this very positive OPEC news ? - this was illogical ! But, it didn't matter... Well - what was logical did not matter; what the Street was thinking at that given moment in time - was what was important ! That was ''ALL" that mattered ! Emotion, not logic rules Wall Street - so when the Street is in an Emotional vs. Logic conflict - bet on the Emotional road every time imho ! Sure enough; the Street sold off these stocks/took profits and the Hedge Funds jumped on the Mo-Mo move downward by turning on their Shorting and ''gunned the Stops''. A brilliant move, but not at all unpredictable... The lesson here; never, ever risk your entire profit base - ever ! Take what the Street gives you. What they have given us of late is the now - 5th (!!!!) trading range of OSX 45-50 to 60-72ish. Untill things change; it is really as simple as buying sub 50 and selling above 60 - or at the first hint of profit taking by the Street. Fool me once - shame on you; fool me twice - shame on me; fool me 5 times --- <VBG> ???? get the point.... Trade 'Em ! ...by ''Trade 'Em'' - that does not mean daytrading; I am not a ''daytrader'' in that I don't trade micro moves, entering and exiting stocks for 1/8th - 1/2 point moves. I would consider myself to be a ''Position Trader''. That being tading within ranges - here of late again OSX 45-50 to 60-72. The "Big 'Un'' has kept the Yellow Light on - quite appropriately and his original mantra of ''plan your trades and trade your plan'' has proven not only correct, but incrediblyprofitable to anyone who has played this OSX rolling range of OSX 45-60+.

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