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Technology Stocks : Silkroad

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To: ahhaha who wrote (325)	3/16/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: Kachina	Read Replies (2) of 626

Wait a minute. This is after all an investment conference first. I think George's comment is very germane to our discussion and it touches on something I commented about earlier. Namely - what is the real practical upgrade path for this technology? Maybe frank can answer the related question - "Is a 2.5 multiplier for bandwidth worth the risk to a telecommunications company to buy from a new untested vendor?" I would say it is marginal, but not out of the question. But once again, the answer hinges on compatibility with existing installed base equipment. If it is 100% compatible with existing amplifiers, etcetera, then yes. If it is also as reliable as existing equipment, then yes. Those two factors are key. Telecommunications companies need very long MTTF or else the ability to swap out very, very fast. The understanding of the exact technology is simply for the purpose of evaluation of this company as an investment. Yes, they are private, but I doubt very much that they are planning to stay that way. But if SR can multiply their 100GB by 10 and deliver terabits? Then I would say they have a winner. The octave rule says that with a 10X price/performance inmprovement you win over installed technology with a track record.

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