Jack- thanks for your post. I learned about Valence from a broker I have known for years and bought my first 1000 shares on 4-2-96.
In my post techstocks.com I did my best to explain why I was "undiversifying". Over the last year, I have owned several stocks, mostly technology, including MSFT, STRM, CSCO, SHVA, FSII, MU, DIMD, IPEC, IOM, INTC, IBM, DELL, SYMC, DSTM , LSI , AURA and some non-tech stocks including PCNI, NOX, ICOS, EDMK, BKS, ATHN, and CERN.
One of the last was CSCO that I sold two weeks ago before their last earnings announcement at $70.25, to buy more Valence, which is now about 95% of my portfolio. It's been a gradual process, the result of successive evaluations, with valence coming out on top in terms of long-term risk vs. reward.
I realize that many people wouldn't do this, especially on margin, and be able to sleep at night. I have been ok in that dept. except for the night of the conf. call. My calculations had been based on projected $/battery. When I heard production numbers stated in cells and that there were 2 or 4 cells per battery, I became more than mildly concerned that my projections were high my those multiples.
To make it worse, I had to leave for a client's factory immediately after the conf call and couldn't immediately check it out. What helped in the meantime was that after dividing the earlier numbers by 2 or 4, the result was still not too bad, and perhaps the market was already using those numbers anyway.
When I did finally speak with the company, they were quite helpful and remarkably patient considering how much of their time I demanded. I directed the residual adrenalyn toward my recent posts. Am I obsessed? I am afraid I have the symptoms, and it has worked to my advantage in the past.
I would be interested to know whether you own VLNC and how you would evaluate it in terms of risk vs. reward etc.
Again, thanks for yor feedback. |
