Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (38554)	3/16/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (2) of 94695

A/D line - some people of bearish persuasion (perhaps not you) find great significance in the fact that the advance-decline line has been dropping ever since October. However, is this really a good measure of the direction of the market? Vitas' much earlier post (#35682) shows that a declining A/D line is normal, though the rapid recent decline is anomalous. What is your take on this? The ratio between stock market yields (earnings and dividends) and short-term bond yields should be a pretty robust predictor of market direction - but as you note this ratio has been below 1.5 for several years now. What do you use to generate the current prediction of an imminent BK? Globex is down at the moment; it'll be fun to see if your prediction of a couple of hundred points down tomorrow holds. Of course, nothing will matter if Friday doesn't follow through, not to mention the Monday plunge... If you prove right, you deserve more than just money :-) Kailash

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