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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24379)3/16/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
Hi Ike:

Hope all is well in Pakistan.

Me 2 cents on oil. JR purchased or ran bankrupt his competition in the 1890's because he wanted to control the boom or bust cycle in oil. He succeded and at the time he controlled something like 90% of proven reserves.

The OPEC cartel has been weakened since the late 70's (when their strength was at its recent peak) when they controlled something like 70% of proven reserves (not sure, just guessing at the amount). They no longer control as much supply on a percentage basis and their own members need hard currency for thier weak economies.

New supply production in south east asia (Thailand & Australia), South America (Columbia). I've read more in the artic but at the current price I can't see the investment plus Russia will pump as much as it can.

I agree with your assessment we won't stay at or above $15 for long unless there is a major crisis impacting supply. Demand is just not enough to absorb todays supply. BWDIK I didn't expect long rates to go above 7.5%.

I also think some Oil talks will hit the market as 'inflation'comes into play as Oil moves higher, but that is a seperate subject.. I hope you get my drift, keep close to your investments .

I assume you mean something similar to the Nimitz of two years ago. Nah the MM wouldn't want to put a scare into the markets just before the triple witch to make money <ggg>. I think I get your drift but can never be sure.

Best regards,

Tim

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