Kailash, that post referred to the Nasdaq a-d line, which over time usually has a a negative bias.
However, at 4 year cycle bottoms the NAZ a-d line goes up for at least the first year. See 1975, 1978,1982,1985,1990,1995.
This time around, there are no signs of life whatsoever. Today it made yet another new low. This would seem to indicate that we have not yet made the true 4 year cycle bottom yet.
Nasdaq daily advance decline line year end reading 1972 to present
and direction for that year:
10/06/72 -259
12/29/72 -9677
12/31/73 -64151 D
12/31/74 -92735 D
12/31/75 -89623 U
12/31/76 -83472 U
12/30/77 -81455 U
12/29/78 -80506 U
12/31/79 -75921 U
12/31/80 -72111 U
12/31/81 -92762 D
12/31/82 -93248 D
12/30/83 -90620 U
12/31/84 -107872 D
12/31/85 -96073 U
12/31/86 -108999 D
12/31/87 -135516 D
12/30/88 -133605 U
12/29/89 -134515 D
12/31/90 -151347 D
12/31/91 -134083 U
12/31/92 -130837 U
12/31/93 -127758 U
12/30/94 -149044 D
12/29/95 -144509 U
12/31/96 -162111 D
12/31/97 -176611 D
12/24/98 -232798 D
That is MINUS 232,798 since October 6, 1972
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In the meantime, on the NYSE, after a four year cycle bottom,when the market makes a recovery high the 1% ema of a-d should cut across the zero line like a knife:
decisionpoint.com
This time, we stalled at zero and have rolled over:
decisionpoint.com
The a-d line should be headed up, instead we actually came back to the October 98 lows:
decisionpoint.com
decisionpoint.com
The present situation looks identical to the last gasp rally
in July, 1957
decisionpoint.com
Notice the failure at zero, the rollover, and the final rally to new
highs.
It is interesting what happened after this failure.
Vitas |
