Ligand (LGND) Breakout! Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!

LGND 206.36

+1.4%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: RXGOLF who wrote (28534)	3/17/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) of 32384

Thanks for your response RXGOLF its good to hear that the possibility of bad news leaking out of clinical trials seems to be very low. One of the perils of small cap investing is the advantage insiders have compared to 'Joe Average' investors. I tend to be somewhat pessimistic with respect to future projections. Many estimates are done assuming that things go right but especially in the biotech world, this is barely the case. Because of the uncertainties, I like to invest in companies having either a large cash pile or even better a revenue stream from an approved product. Besides the risk of running out of money, LGND has quite a broad pipeline which makes the technology risk quite small. With respect to the breast cancer trials, I consider the current lack of news as negative. There may be reasons other that lack of efficiency or statistical significance but who knows? The smaller trials lets us suggest a response of 40%, which does not seem bad to me and if the breast cancer study shows similar results we could look at 20$ per share very soon. Studying Biotechs now for quite a while I tend to favor companies which tend to have a low development cost per product,even when those products show only a marginal improvement. One example are companies in the field of drug delivery. Also a focused technology platform can be a plus, when economies of scale are achieved, subsequently lowering the development cost too. An examples for this flavor is PDLI in Antibodies (even though not hugely succesful ). LGND has two or three different platforms and they are in my opinion not focused enough, considering the limited resources they have. Well, we got a very good discussion going on here...

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