INDEX UPDATE
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Yesterday was the BUY-IN for the CLASS 1 SELL signal and it was timely. I mention that since on a statistical basis it implies that the pullback could be normal in size, approximately 200-450 range.
Again, I am not expecting a huge pullback right now, that could come in April.
I would like to take a few moments to talk about trends. I still hear from BULLs that it is foolish to go against the trend, which I also agree, so the question is what is the trend.
The trend for fewer and fewer stocks, and at times its only 5-10 major stocks, is up. At the same time the trend for the vast majority of stocks, which number in the thousands, are down. There is a dichotomy going on right now, and it should be understood. So for the BULLs to say to just BUY BUY BUY, and that the trend is up is only a partial understanding of the market.
As I have mentioned in my previous post, both the up-side and
downside can be played. I will admit that I am definitely more bearish than bullish, but I dont reside in either the BULL or BEAR camp. Since January, stock-picking in both direction was the way to go.
I am still of the position that the stronger pullback should start by the end of MAR/early April. I also feel that there will be more attempts to break above 10,000 before early April, but if 10,000 is broken on a closing basis, the upside from there should be limited to 100-200 points, so lets say max upside around 10,200, if it gets that high.
I also want to mention again that the interest rates are in CLASS BUY status and should move up within days. How much of a move, I dont know. Such could fuel a sell-off if the upswing in rates is strong enough.
seeya |
