From -- washtimes.com
(sorry about the format)
Experts predict year-2000 gas
lines
By Jason Schultz
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Year-2000 computer experts predict
skyrocketing
gasoline prices and long lines of frazzled
motorists come
January, when computers with the millennium
bug disrupt
the steady stream of foreign oil that supplies
U.S. gas
stations.
Oil shortages "will potentially be the major
source of
economic disruption in this country," said
Sen. Robert F.
Bennett, Utah Republican and chairman of a
Senate
Special Committee on the Year-2000 Problem.
Computer failures are expected at oil
refineries and
ports in Venezuela, Mexico and Saudi Arabia,
which provide
43.5 percent of all U.S. petroleum imports,
petroleum
industryexperts say.
The oil shortages of 1973 and 1974 were
caused by a 5
percent reduction in foreign imports, which
then made up
30 percent of all oil consumption by
Americans, said
Harrison Fox, an analyst for the House
Government Reform
subcommittee on government management,
information
and technology.
But now foreign oil imports amount to 60
percent of
American consumption and disruption of oil
supplies from
Venezuela alone could reduce imports by at
least 5
percent, Mr. Fox said.
Venezuela supplies the United States with
1.6 million
barrels of oil a day, or 16.2 percent of total
imports.
At least 20 percent to 35 percent of
process controls at
Venezuela's six refineries have bad computer
chips that
won't function, said Lou Marcoccio, chief
researcher for the
Gartner Group. These refineries process oil
into gasoline
for U.S service station chains.
Oil companies in Venezuela "have no focus
and just
started awareness six months ago," Mr.
Marcoccio said.
The main American petroleum companies in
Venezuela
are BP-Amoco, Shell, Conoco and Citgo, which
is partially
owned by the Venezuelan government.
Ron Quiggins of Shell, who served on the
American
Petroleum Institute's year-2000 task force,
said he was
unaware of the problems in Venezuela. Other
companies
declined to respond to inquiries.
Saudi Arabia and Mexico, which provide
another 2.7
million barrels of oil a day to the United
States, also have
millions of tainted computer chips embedded in
refinery
machinery, oil tankers and port equipment.
The built-in glitch prevents the
computers from reading
dates correctly because only the last two
digits of the year
have been recorded.
Carl Garrison, owner of the Superior SI
computer firm,
said he is more concerned about the ability of
oil
companies to ship their products in oil
tankers next year.
Bad computer chips could cause pumps and
navigation
computers on oil tankers around the world to
malfunction,
delaying 5 percent to 10 percent of all oil
shipments to the
United States for weeks.
Even minor disruptions in the oil supply
chain that are
quickly fixed after Jan. 1 would send ripples
all the way to
America's gas pumps, Mr. Garrison said,
because gas
stations rely on "just-in-time" deliveries of
gasoline to keep
running instead of stockpiling reserves.
"For the first few weeks of 2000, you'll
probably see gas
prices shoot up drastically," said Bruce
Webster, who runs
the D.C.-based Y2K Group, a major year-2000
watchdog
organization. "I would not be surprised to see
a 50 percent
rise in prices."
(Yeah, I think 'ol Bruce "knows" something.)
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