Don,
I agree about the weak upswing, but i believe it will begin from Friday or Monday's low, not today's. We should trickle down til then. I don't have any targets in mind for the lows into Fri/Mon., but i'm hearing alot about support at 1243SPX and 9600. Will have to check that out. I fully agree that the large part of the downswing will come later, but i believe it will begin from next Tuesday's highs, and be in full force for the following week. I think they want to sell this thing down hard BEFORE April earnings come in, as April earnings should provide a strong bounce in the market.
Thus, we have a 2 week and few day window to get this first leg down completed. Then i see a strong bounce through April and even into May, but no new highs anywhere, then one more good sized leg down into early July, which is where this market should bottom and finally be ready for an authentic rally with good internals/technicals. But doesn't it make sense that it will take that long to flush all the "poison" out of the system?
The bull market resumption after the July lows should be truly stellar, and my best guess at the moment is that it will last into 2008, with 54000 a top side target for the Dow. I'm super, super bullish for the long haul, but believe strongly this market needs to correct strongly between now and July... between 15 and 25% to be precise, with the correction being slow and grinding (expect for the next 2 weeks, which could be pretty sharp down).
Regards,
David
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