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Biotech / Medical : Imclone systems (IMCL)
IMCL 0.1590.0%Oct 5 5:00 PM EST
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To: Raven McCloud who wrote (458)3/17/1999 12:14:00 PM
From: 5,17,37,5,101,...  Read Replies (2) of 2515
 
Raven,

I've thought a bit about your reason for shorting, the high probability that the stock will retreat to $13 as interest fades due to lengthy clinical trials, but while I think this very true on average, it's not really a good bet in every situation because investors' percieved outcome of clinical trials will depend on a few things: 1) side effects; 2) efficacy; 3) FDA approval and time to; 4) net cash flow from sales. In IMCL's case 1) few if any side effects ; 2) efficacy highly probable; 3) 2 yrs likely always longer than expected 4) depends on competing drugs and IMO the caveat here. Still, I think the market for such drugs is large enough for IMCL to make an awful lot of money. IMCL will obviously find a trading range somewhere; where is a tough call.

Jackson
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