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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 233.07

-3.7%

12:56 PM EST

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To: A. A. LaFountain III who wrote (43920)	3/17/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (4) of 53903

Tad, Yes equipment is now on the way up and the AMAT's and TER's were adequately rewarded since Oct 8th.<g> IMO what is significant right now is not just the direction of the trend but the magnitude and the time factors. To put this into perspective let's go back to our favorite time last summer when TXN gave away their fabs to MU and kicked in 100's of millions of cash infusion in exchange for a lucrative stock investment.<vbg>. This changed the commodity game for DRAM significantly since MU then became the company with the ability to quickly make cap expenditures for upgrades where SEA companies were ( and in some cases still) in financial trouble forcing them behind. As a result MU company is in a much better position than most of their competitors...and MU is insuring that they remain that way by closely monitoring DRAM dumping and improper funding to their competitors. As far as 128mb, 256mb chips being introduce early...well its nice...but look at the costs of them. Until crossover occurs the 64mb chip will be the chip of choice. The "forever bears" failed to understand the concept of crossover and it was best demonstrated with the 16mb to 64mb crossover. It never occured for the reasons they predicted so for over a year they kept predicting it was around the corner and the corner kept getting pushed out. The driving force for 64mb chips were the need for 64mbyte and larger pc systems. That is when the necessity for 64mb chips occurred and then 6 months later the crossover happened. When 128mbyte and larger systems are the norm than the 128mb or 256mb chips will be necessary. IMO MU is still in the best position in this speculative DRAM commodity sector with a cost per chip now around the $6 level. Now memory chips have a good relationship with Moore's law and so far is following it quite well ....so as long as the ASP's drop proportionate to the cost all is well. Let's hope the SEA's have learned their lesson this time around.<ggg> Also I guess it bothers me that the "forever bears" take any negative news and try to spin it to the maximum. As you may have already noticed some here continue to quote memory module prices and try to work backwards to determine what MU's contract prices should be. It is silly at best and I have given up on those issues. MU's ASP's will certainly be higher than the spot prices being quoted on this thread...and that is all that is important. Also some here refuse to acknowledge that demand is growing significantly year to year as the need for larger memory systems has grown to a minimum 32 mbyte system and a typical system of 64mbytes. By the end of the year 128mbyte will be the norm. In addition demand will be pushed by the low cost $299 PC's now being introduced with 32mbytes. Not only will all the homes without a Pc now buy one but expect to see two or three in a typical home just like a tv or stereo. MSFT and MU will do well and instead of INTC maybe now NSM and AMD will get their chance.:-) BTW thanks for your input, DavidG

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