Chip,
I received the basis for all my cycle work from Jerry Favors. He has spent many years utilizing cycles and researching their efficacy, and he obviously consulted with all the master cycle gurus before him. After years of research, he parsed through all the possible cycle combinations, along with possible time placements, and narrowed his arsenal to 9 cycle timeframes which work best. These 9 are divided into 5 daily basis cycles and 4 weekly cycles, each cycle with its own high and low dates. He developed so much confidence in his cycle work that he now puts rougly 50% emphasis on them, even though he has a tool kit of 20+ blockbuster analytical tools.
I received his cycle work in totality at the Manhatten, NY seminar last summer, July 24th to be precise. I was skeptical at the time, as my emphasis had been on Ewave work. At that seminar, he showed how his cycle work predicted the July 20th high to the day...which is why he came out with that call at least 6 months earlier. Sure enough, it happened as he said, to my disbelief and shock. I brought the cycle work home, and tinkered around with it a bit, but couldn't develop a sure fire way to utilize it in my trading. I knew there was something missing... A key that I did not have to unlock its power... Too many incorrect signals were being given.
After hundreds of hours and months and months studying them and the markets interaction with them, the veil came off... eyes opened... I saw the light. Favors had given hints at the seminar, but he did not spell it out clearly on how they should best be implemented in one's trading, and to this day, I have not seen him fully implement these strategies, which is why he missed the bottom in October. Maybe he emphasized something else at the time... I dunno... All i know is... All i have to do is obediently trade these cycle signals, and the sky is the limit.
The problem with EWAVE analysis is there are nearly always 2 or 3 different paths the market can take, and you get blindsided constantly by the unexpected. But E-Wave often gives predictive ability that couldn't be garnered from any other source. Using them in combo is a winner.
As for the Oct. 8th '98 time frame holding any special relevance in my cycle work... Not at all. These cycles are immovable concrete structures that are already set for the future. Nothing ever gets modified. I can tell you what trading days the 26 day cycle high falls on from here to eternity. To give you an example of what these cycles looked like during the crash last fall, they called for a 23 and 11 week cycle low around sept. 1st, and the market obliged with a nice rally into late Sept. An 11 week cycle high was due in the last week of Sept, and gave the market downward propulsion into the October lows. The next weekly cycle turn day was due at the end of October, with a 38 week cycle low due in. Thus, if the high during the 11 week cycle high in late Sept was eclipsed by even a point, a strong rally was signaled, which is what happened in the middle of Oct.
One would have needed to utilize the daily basis cycles to trade the interim. A 22 day cycle high was due in on 10/7, and a 16 day cycle high was due in on 10/9. Thus, if the market exceeded the highs of either of those days, an "inverted cycle buy signal" would be given. On 10/12, both days highs were exceeded, giving you the signal to cover shorts and go long. Had i done that, I'd be about 500 grand richer right now. But i didn't get this stuff down until the first part of Feb. '99.
The results of these signals are obscene. I'm in shock everytime i look at my W.O.W. Daily Nyse cash chart and see how effective they are. Look for a seminar coming soon to a city near you! <g>
Regards,
David |
