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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (25824)3/17/1999 2:53:00 PM
From: Defrocked  Read Replies (3) of 86076
 
I know what my stubbornness will cost me with
these OEX Mar 650 puts. But with oil above $15, my
remaining oil stocks are helping to suffer the
the OEX losses.

Now,for the purposes of erudition, let me post
the % chg. in nearby oil over the last few months
assuming that the April contract remains at $15
for the balance of the March trading sessions:

Jan.....3.6%
Feb.....-3.9%
Mar.....17.3%

Given that energy is approximately 10% or more of
the PPI, the March number released on April 9th should
show a substantial bump higher. Of course the market will argue
that one-month's move in a volatile component does not
translate into inflation. And of course energy could decline
during the intervening weeks before release. However, I still
maintain that a bond rally on Feb's CPI tomorrow may be a
good reentry point for those inclined to short. BWDIK.
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