Silicon wafers could be in short supply by 2000, says researcher
A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 3 p.m. EST/noon PST, 3/17/99/h5>
OYSTER BAY, N.Y. -- There could be a shortage of silicon wafers by 2000,
as fabless chip companies become a more potent factor in the industry
and more semiconductor houses outsource production, putting a strain on
wafer production. According to a new report by Allied Business
Intelligence Inc., a technology research firm here, fabless companies
are experiencing 30% annual growth, while other chip manufacturers could
outsource a total of 10% of their IC production to foundries as they try
to rush dormant lines to production. The result, said ABI, could not
only be a shortage of wafers by 2000 but also a steep increase in wafer
prices.
Silicon remains the dominant material for substrates and wafers, with
demand expected to reach $7 billion in 1999.
The reclaimed-wafer market is emerging as an important factor, according
to the report, Wafers & Substrate Materials: World Markets 99." The
savings brought about by using reclaimed wafers is expanding
opportunities for test wafers as replacements for more expensive prime
wafers and they now comprise 10% of the market.
The timing of the move from 200- to 300-mm wafers still is in doubt,
said ABI. A host of issues--the slump in revenues, the lack of available
processing equipment, the cost of building a new 300-mm fab, etc.--
still have to be resolved before the transition can take place.
Compound semiconductors like indium phosphide are moving to new
applications beyond photonics, ABI found. Gallium nitride has been
successfully demonstrated as a blue laser generator. Silicon carbide is
poised to take over large segments in high-temperature and high-power
electronics. Other compound semiconductor material systems including
cadmium telluride and zinc selenide are experiencing steady growth in
their niche applications, ABI said.
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