LATimes. Get Ready for a New Breed of of Equipment. Products are combining features of mobile phones and PCs, making data connections as commonplace as voice
latimes.com
Monday, March 15, 1999
SPECIAL REPORT: WIRELESS COMMUNICATIONS
By KAREN KAPLAN, Times Staff Writer
ome people are so attached to the Internet
that it's difficult for them to leave it behind
when they leave their desks.
Soon they may not have to.
A new class of devices that combine the
features of mobile phones and portable computers
promises to make wireless data connections as
commonplace as cell phone conversations.
"Smart" phones will be used to answer
electronic mail messages in addition to voice calls.
Palmtop PCs and personal digital assistants
(PDAs) will be able to read Web pages as easily
as computerized schedules and to-do lists. Other
products are being developed to fill niches in
between.
These devices' wireless data connections won't
be restricted to the Internet. Mobile professionals
will be able to dial into their corporate networks
from the road, and traveling salespeople can use
the gadgets to check inventory back at the
warehouse. Some enthusiasts will subscribe to
private services that use wireless networks to
transmit stock quotes, sports scores, weather
reports and even horoscopes.
But industry analysts, executives and engineers
agree that the Internet--especially e-mail--is driving
the cross-pollination of phones and computers.
"The Internet is the killer app for wireless data," said David
Christopher, the product manager in charge of the forthcoming Palm VII
hybrid at 3Com's Palm Computing unit.
By 2002, nearly 12.6 million U.S. consumers--including 1.3 million
Californians--will be spending more than $5 billion to connect devices
such as the Palm VII to invisible phone networks, according to
Telecompetition, a market research firm in San Ramon, Calif. That's four
times the number of people who used wireless data networks last year,
according to the firm.
Why such rapid growth? Plenty of players have an interest in
propelling this fledgling industry.
For wireless phone companies, the new breed of products means
more minutes of network use and therefore more revenue. Consumer
electronics makers will create more devices to sell, and software
companies will write code to run them. Other firms are springing up to
supply content for the gadgets.
And for consumers, the blending of mobile phones and PCs means
it's easier to stay in constant contact with their data.
"It doesn't matter if you're a business person or an average
consumer--everyone's mobile," said General Magic Chief Executive
Steve Markman, whose Sunnyvale, Calif., company makes virtual
assistant software. "They've all got to be able to get access to key
information and messages wherever they are."
The big question is what kind of device they will use to retrieve those
messages. Few envision all-in-one offerings--like the Nokia 9000
Communicator--becoming popular because they are seen as too bulky
and expensive.
"You just wind up compromising tons of functionality when you try to
build it into one device," said Warren Allen, senior product planner for
Toshiba in Irvine, one of five companies developing a wireless data
standard called Bluetooth. "You get all sorts of users saying, 'I wish they
had saved me $100 by leaving out this thing that I'm never going to use.'
"
Nokia says plenty of its customers are willing to carry a bigger
device with a full keyboard that can perform many of the functions of a
mobile office, including faxing, e-mail and scheduling. Technological
improvements will allow the company to produce a smaller, lighter
Communicator without giving up any functionality, said Haroon Alvi,
director of business development for Nokia Mobile Phones in Irving,
Texas.
But others, such as Andy Seybold, chairman of the Portable
computer and Communications Assn. in Boulder Creek, Calif., insist
that combination devices tend not to be as popular with consumers as
application-specific products.
"The only combination device the American public has bought in
great numbers is the clock radio," Seybold said.
Instead, the market will be dominated by data-centric
communicators that have some voice capabilities and voice-centric
smart phones that have some data capabilities, said Alasdair Manson,
director of evangelism for Symbian, a London-based joint venture of
mobile phone giants Ericsson, Motorola and Nokia and portable PC
maker Psion.
On the communicator side, the most widely anticipated product is
3Com's Palm VII. The device, currently in field trials, will combine the
functions of a standard Palm hand-held organizer with a wireless
connection for Web and intranet access and two-way messaging. The
product is expected to launch later this year with a price tag of less than
$800, Christopher said.
Meanwhile, computer features have been creeping into mobile
phones since wireless carriers switched on their digital networks. Soon
those features will turn phones into portable Internet terminals.
San Diego-based Qualcomm has licensed the Palm software and will
incorporate into its pdQ smart phone, due out by summer. Nextel and
Motorola are teaming up with Silicon Valley software firms Netscape
and Unwired Planet to make Internet-ready phones as well.
Start-ups are jumping in too. IGS, a San Diego company founded by
Qualcomm alumnus William Son, developed NeoPoint, a 6-ounce
mobile phone with an enlarged screen for text messages and
voice-activated Web surfing. The phone can dock with a PC to upload
or download phone numbers and other data. NeoPoint phones will be
available later this year for $299, Son said.
Since the hybrid devices are starting to resemble computers, it's no
surprise that Microsoft is targeting the market. Its Windows CE
operating system is already used in some hand-held PCs, and the
company founded Wireless Knowledge in San Diego with Qualcomm to
create software specifically for the new class of products.
Plenty of others, including Symbian and Unwired Planet, are creating
their own software in an effort to prevent Microsoft from extending its
dominance into wireless data. The Bluetooth consortium is even
developing a new hardware and software system that would allow
portable computers and PDAs to link to wireless phone networks via
radio connections to cellular phones.
Over the next five years, mobile data devices will become lighter and
faster, with bigger screens and longer-lasting batteries, analysts and
executives said. Some, like NeoPoint, will also incorporate smart agent
technology.
"It knows it's your significant other's birthday, it knows he likes John
Grisham, and it knows a new Grisham book just came out," said Son,
describing a typical scenario. "It will know there are 10 copies at Barnes
& Noble, and it will give you directions to get there."
The core technology for the hybrid devices is already here, said
Mark Desautels, managing director of the Wireless Data Forum in
Washington.
"Much of it sounds futuristic when in fact it's already being done,"
Desautels said. "There aren't many applications you can think of that
today's equipment can't do."
* * *
Times staff writer Karen Kaplan can be reached via e-mail at
karen.kaplan@latimes.com.
* * *
Coming Un-Wired
Mobile phones and portable computers are merging into a wireless
data market that analysts project will top $5 billion by 2002, according
to market research firm Telecompetition. This growing segment of the
total wireless market is expected to see its customer base quadruple
between 1998 and 2002. More than one in 10 wireless data customers
are expected to come from California. Number of people subscribing to
a wireless data service, in thousands:
Region: Los Angeles/O.C./Ventura/Riverside/San bernardino
1998: 157
1999: 233
2000: 325
2001: 457
2002: 639
Region: San Francisco/Oakliand/San Jose
1998: 81
1999: 120
2000: 167
2001: 235
2002: 329
Region: San Diego
1998: 26
1999: 39
2000: 54
2001: 75
2002: 106
Region: California
1998: 328
1999: 487
2000: 678
2001: 953
2002: 1,334
Region: Total U.S.
1998: 3,100
1999: 4,600
2000: 6,400
2001: 9,000
2002: 12,590
* * *
Source: Telecompetition Inc.
Copyright 1999 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved
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