Well said Ken;
"And, beyond that...
In the gas/oil field, from ground ( a foreign country,in this case) to utility co/gas pumps,
there are app. 10 'layers' of a linear chain. If any one of those app. 10 are sufficiently
disrupted, then, e.g., we lose gas from any such country....(an offshot of the 'weakest
link' theory)..."
Dependency!Dependency!Dependency! Think Dependency!
"And, also remember, in a disruption of any given chain, the cascading effect WORKS
BACKWARD, AS WELL AS FORWARD! Most overlook the 'backward'
effect....and thus, make more optomistic forecasts than are logical!"
This is why we are headed towards depression rather than recession.The planners didn't plan correctly.The economic ramifications of y2k have not yet sunk into the market let alone the man in the street.The power of the dependencies is very hard to visualize.
I think it was Bev Armstrong that used the cliff-walker analogy:The cliff-walkers marching along high above the precipice tied together,so that if one or a few fall they can be pulled back to safety.But at some point if too many fall then all begin too tumble over the edge each pulled down by his partners weight.
It is at this point that the knife wielders become important because
if you have a knife to cut the rope and are far enough away from those falling you can save yourself and those near to you by cutting the cord.We,all of us here are knife wielders.We may or may not choose to cut the cord.We must evaluate the situation,monitor decide act.Our knives are paper,dollars if you will,our cords are banks.If we take our knives and cut, the cords will fail.Governments worst scenario unfolds we call it TEOTWAWKI.I don't want to use my knife it frightens me;but I will use it.I won't wait until I feel my partners weight then its too late.
J.L.T. |
