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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)
NOK 6.730-0.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Valueman who wrote (1582)3/18/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (4) of 34857
 
I'm talking about CDMA handset product recalls - not network problems. And there are several different estimates for Japanese CDMA subscriber base - the high number of people terminating their contracts makes it hard to estimate the situation. The CDMA camp estimate for their 1999 year-end subscriber number in Japan is 3 million. Let's get back to this discussion later and see how realistic that is.

Companies always say that they are "studying" a problem when they are asked about these kind of issues - saying that no problems exist looks high-handed and dismissive. I know what the return rates for different brands of handsets are in several outlets in Sweden, England, Germany, China and USA. Nokia is below the overall rates of Ericsson and Motorola. I don't think you want to know who's topping the charts in 1998 phone returns in USA.

I still find it hard to believe you are willing to acknowledge a tabloid as a legitimate news source. Have you any idea what the Swedish tabloids are saying about CDMA? Are you willing to believe Expressen's opinions about Qualcomm? I don't think you want to go there, either.

Primeco approached several handset manufacturers in their quest to find one that would deliver a tri-mode CDMA model. We know how that developed. I think we might as well wait a couple of months before we discuss the US CDMA handset market further. The real competition is starting this spring with Motorola, Nokia and the Asian companies finally introducing competitive entries. The significance of the cross-platform strategy that Motorola and Nokia are pursuing is tested in 1999 - Startac and 6100 series are global brands with a high consumer awareness in USA.

We'll see next autumn how well the far less well known models can compete against them. So far the Big Three brands have demolished the Asian competition from South Africa to China to Australia to Iceland. In AMPS, NMT, GSM-900, GSM-1800, GSM-1900, TDMA-800 and TDMA-1900 standards. The Asian companies made no progress in the US, European or the Chinese marketshare competition in 1998 according to Dataquest estimates. I wouldn't bet on Samsung or LG after the decade-long losing streak they have had in five continents.

Tero

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