For the general thread...
I don't want to sound like I am defending Kumar here.....granted, it does sound like a slick analyst trick to wait until the quiet period to issue the analyst's "call" (because the company can not respond)...but, on the other hand: Compaq's IR (and our) "spin" on this quarter is that it is back-loaded...ie., the make or break weeks are in the 2nd half of the March..) Now, whether he is right or wrong, it is a bit unjust to call Kumar a joker (some here have called him worse) for waiting until now to issue such a warning..Indeed, given what we believe (and CPQ's IR says), a good analyst (not necessarily Compaq) would have to wait until these days to make a real call on CPQ...and that is what Kumar has done....sure, he is being aggressive, but again, if you were going to make an aggressive call on the quarter, now would be the time to do it...(and not a week or two ago, when it was not clear how March sales would turn out)..
We can not have it both ways: Believing that the quarter is back-loaded, and then criticizing those analysts who wait until (the quiet period) to make their calls on CPQ. Had the spin not been "back-loaded", then I would concur that Kumar had acted wrongly...
Look, the stock has not totally tanked here (I was expecting it to fall below 30)...the truth will be out soon enough....it doesnt look like Kumar has done too much damage today...If Victor (and others) are right, this will not be remembered... |
