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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Mark Ericson who wrote (53912)3/18/1999 1:54:00 PM
From: rudedog  Read Replies (4) of 97611
 
Mark - I agree. Gross revenues were originally assumed to be about $10B (which BTW struck me as pretty strong since it has traditionally been lower than 4Q), that is a run rate of about $830M/week. close to 20% of that is services, which as victor points out are VERY predictable near term. So we are talking about a total gross revenue in 2 weeks of about $1.2B that could be a variable.
There is just not enough room in that number to explain the kind of difference Kumar is claiming. To hit his number, CPQ sales in the last 2 weeks would have to drop to 50% of current run rate, in a time when CPQ is driving the factory to capacity.
I think Kumar got some information, extrapolated on it, and saw a chance to make a bet. But there is just not any substance to his view. Maybe he is taking advice from Jim Kelley.
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