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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues
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To: Christine Traut who wrote (4786)3/18/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: flatsville  Read Replies (1) of 9818
 
Christine--I agree that a 50% chance of recession in positively "Doombrood." Hardly consistent with a "bump in the road" prediction.

Few economists rarely, if ever, will predict more than a one or two percent chance of recession. (Only one economist warned of a depression on the horizon prior to 1929.)

The prevailing opinion can be seen here:
dismal.com

I think most the author will admit to is that y2k will shave GDP fractionally. His conclusion reads:

>>>Expecting Y2K failures to undermine the global economy is like expecting a large meteor to land somewhere on the planet. Both should be taken seriously and planned for and, while certainly plausible, thus making for entertaining reading or movie fodder, they are both equally unlikely.<<<

By this guy's reasoning a 50/50 chance of recession would be positively "Doombrood" as well.

Is my canary starting to gasp and choke a little?


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