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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (38734)3/18/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: William H Huebl  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
OJ,

You may be able to trade this market from the bull side but for me, when the SCY ratio is the lowest in history, that virtually screams DANGER, SELL!!!

My projection for this week was that the DOW would get over 10,000 and Thursday would be the strongest day with Monday-Wednesday being the weakest. Yeah, I know I forecast a 195 point or so sell-off for today - but I was expecting as much as a 300 point downer BECAUSE of the vulnerability of the markets right now. I really DID expect a crash to happen this week... doesn't look likely at all unless something comes out of the blue.

Sorry, OJ, I can't trade the long side with SCY this low... I KNOW a crash is coming and my past history of forecasting shows I am usually early. So go ahead and buy the long side... but be durn careful - any negative event at this time could lead to a very dangerous sell-off.

And since I am hearing so MUCH bullishness on this thread from people who usually are more cautious - like yourself - that gives me further pause.

Bill

PS I believe in not fighting the Fed and that the trend is your friend, until cash or bonds become a riskless way to make more than you can make in markets... especially with the level of risk we have now!
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