I posted this in Yahoo thread, and relates to a Lehman Bros analyst report on NT from just last week:
"Before making predictions, it would behoove you all to read the Lehman
Bros report that was linked in an earlier post this evening(
lehman.com you, by the
way. It is based on an interview they had with Roth and the new CFO just
a week ago.
This is my summary of the report:
1. Lehman's analyst(Tim Luke) maintains an "outperform" rating
2. Luke maintains current qtr est of $.33/share(equal to Zack consensus)
and current 1999 est.
3. HOWEVER, does not see much if any upside to est due to confirmation
by NT that PBX and Bay Enterprise units(which comprise about 33% of
total NT revs) are coming in below plan this qtr, which will offset
strength in other areas that might have pushed NT above consensus.
4. Concerns over corporate issues about Y2k may reduce opportunity for
overachieving in the second half of 1999.
5. New deal with AT&T, even if the switches past the tests, will not
impact revs until 2000.
6. Warning by 3Com was real, and is impacting Bay unit. Particularly
tough pricing competition in lowend LAN switches.
7. NT Mgmt did say that the guidance they gave on profit was based on
more conservative margin est than internal est, which may leave room for
a few extra pennies this qtr.
8. All of this from a firm that does business with NT, has a member on
the Board of Directors of NT and an analyst who discloses he holds a
position in NT(as reported in the official document). Doesn't sound like
someone trying to drive down NT price.
All in all, I didn't see anything that told me NT Mgmt is expecting any
big upside surprise. That also tells me there is nothing to suggest a
motion to split the stock at the next annual meeting in late April.
Read the report and draw your own conclusions, but ignore the report at
your own peril."
Paul |
